【出版时间及名称】:2010年4月欧洲传媒与互联网行业研究报告
【作者】:摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】:pdf
【页数】:55
【目录或简介】:
We still like the sector. Our diagnosis at the start of the
year was that media would again outperform the market
on an ex Vivendi basis and we still hold with that view.
Cyclicals still preferred for now; look to defensives
later in the year. We continue to favour the
broadcasters, particularly ProSieben and ITV as our
key cyclical choices. The early cycle B2B stocks,
Informa and DMGT (also exposed to consumer
upswing) are the picks. We are conscious of already
strong performance and downgrade Telecinco to
Equal-weight. Turning to the defensives, our key
professional publisher pick remains Pearson. We’re not
ready to be buyers of Reed yet – perhaps after the
anticipated low point of the April 20th AGM. We move
Thomson Reuters back to Equal-weight given its extra
investment plans and with a still sluggish Legal market.
We still favour the satellite names (SES and Eutelsat).
We expect Yell to be a surprise package in 2Q as
improving trading highlights a depressed equity valuation
Wolters Kluwer cut to Underweight. It is very late
cycle and requires extra investment to offset the
accelerating print decline. Remain UW UBM and WPP.
2010 – Q2 big themes. (i) Advertising upturn: Q1 was
dominated by the better-than-expected advertising trends
amongst the broadcasters. We expect the momentum in
this to carry forward into Q2 and Q3. (ii) Operational
gearing: Many cyclicals are combining an improving top
line with a new-found discipline in cost control, leading to
sharply improved margins. (iii) Extra investment: By
contrast, margin recovery in the advertising agencies is
muted due to cost creep and extra investment (Publicis,
Omnicom). Several publishers (Reed, UBM, Thomson
Reuters) are also seeing a heightened requirement for
reinvestment. (iv) Structural issues: The key debates
are around IPTV, the UK pay TV review, 3D television
and the impact of the Apple iPad. Structural concerns in
broadcasters continue to lessen. (v) Corporate activity:
A rash of deals in Q4 2009 leads us to believe that media
acquisition, disposal and merger activity is likely to rise in
2010. Pearson’s IDC sale is a key focus for Q2.