2010年4月英国证券市场投资策略报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月英国证券市场投资策略报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：82
        【目录或简介】：
What if a hung parliament?
Risk appetite might be weakened if expectations build on the need for another
election. Talk of a credit downgrade could cause Sterling to fall sharply, gilt yields
to rise, and foreign investors might even shun the UK. The FTSE100 is more than
double the size of CAC-40, the next largest equity market in Europe, so it is worth
considering the consequences. Under this scenario we recommend our non-UK
exposed basket (Bloomberg code DBCTNOUK), and companies such as Buy rated
ENRC, WPP, Compass, Cairn Energy, Tullow Oil, HSBC, Smith & Nephew,
Shire, Experian and Unilever. Our analysts also highlight the following stocks as
relative winners within their sectors: Old Mutual, Aviva, Pearson, UBM, Reed
Elsevier, Misys, Signet, BAE Systems and International Power
We also recommend the Dec11 FTSE dividend future which remains 12%
undervalued. 49% of the FTSE 100’s total dividend is paid in Dollars (see pg36).
Having outperformed the FTSE 100 by 28% since Nov08, the FTSE250 may start
to struggle relative the FTSE100 if Sterling were to fall and risk appetite weaken.
On current earnings expectations, a 10-year gilt yield of 5% (currently 4%) would
put the FTSE at 5400 (currently 5780). If gilt yields spike higher the oil sector
typically outperforms (top pick BP) and insurance underperforms. We highlight
Legal & General as a potential casualty.
What if a Conservative majority?
We believe a conservative majority would be equity-positive despite the possibility
of Sterling strength. If pre-emptive fiscal consolidation follows then official interest
rates may be held lower for longer by the Bank of England. This is likely to support
the retail sector (top pick Kingfisher) although an increase in VAT would not be
good news for the likes of DSGi. We also think that UK banks are sufficiently
cheap to more than discount political and regulatory risk (top pick Barclays).
A focus on companies exposed to spending cuts is likely to intensify. See pg38 for
a list of companies that have UK government contracts. We caution against
assuming that a Conservative win would accelerate the outsourcing trend.
Specifically we would highlight Standard Life, St James’s Place, Berkeley
Group, Serco, G4S, National Grid, Centrica, Autonomy, Sage and C&W
Worldwide as relative winners within their sectors and BT, Logica, Bovis, Trinity
Mirror and Hays as relative losers.
What if Labour hold on?
Some of the companies exposed to spending cuts that may have underperformed
in anticipation of a Conservative win may see a relief rally (mainly smaller
companies). However, the problem of government finances remains and there is
no guarantee that the risk of a sovereign downgrade would be averted. A
continuation of the current loose policy framework is likely to be inflationary and
bearish for gilts. We may see better performances from IT services, aerospace
and the housebuilders (top pick Barratt) if Labour retain a majority.

Table of Contents
Overview ............................................................................................ 4
Economics & politics......................................................................... 7
How the polls are shaping up ...................................................................................................7
The mechanics of a hung parliament ........................................................................................9
What the parties stand for ......................................................................................................11
What to watch for on election night........................................................................................14
Macro-economic implications .................................................................................................15
Sovereign ratings – the risk of a downgrade...........................................................................17
Gilt strategy ..................................................................................... 19
Sterling ............................................................................................. 23
Equity strategy................................................................................. 26
Election tactics........................................................................................................................26
What if gilt yields spike higher? ..............................................................................................27
Could foreign investors shun the UK?.....................................................................................31
Safety in the UK’s global contingent .......................................................................................32
FTSE 100 preferred over FTSE 250.........................................................................................33
FTSE Dividend future ..............................................................................................................35
Fiscal austerity ........................................................................................................................37
Sector commentary......................................................................... 41
Banks .....................................................................................................................................41
Insurance ...............................................................................................................................44
Pubs.......................................................................................................................................45
Alcohol & tobacco...................................................................................................................46
Media.....................................................................................................................................47
Telecom.................................................................................................................................49
Technology .............................................................................................................................49
Food retail ...............................................................................................................................54
General Retail.........................................................................................................................55
Engineering............................................................................................................................56
Housebuilding .........................................................................................................................56
Business services ...................................................................................................................63
Defence .................................................................................................................................63
Gambling................................................................................................................................64
Utilities ...................................................................................................................................65
Appendices....................................................................................... 75
UK earnings............................................................................................................................76
UK dividends ...........................................................................................................................77
DB UK coverage......................................................................................................................78

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