【出版时间及名称】:2010年4月中国证券市场投资策略报告
【作者】:摩根大通
【文件格式】:pdf
【页数】:93
【目录或简介】:
‘Views from the Bund’ is a monthly publication that gives clients a valueadded
view on China macro, strategy, and industry insights.
• Key investment theme: MSCI China may stage a rally in April and
May. The MSCI China has underperformed the MSCI EM and MSCI
World by 2.54% and 4.19%, respectively, in 1Q FY10. We believe there
may be a window of opportunity for MSCI China to stage a rally in
April and May 2010, given: 1) the improvements in China’s
fundamentals, such as: a) no full-fledged tightening in 2Q10—China
needs time to gauge the effect of the monetary tightening measures
introduced in late FY09 as it takes around six months for the monetary
tightening measures to take effect; b) the expected appreciation of
renminbi as of 2Q FY10; c) China’s financial market has already priced
in three 27bp interest rate hikes this year; 2) an improvement in the nearterm
liquidity situation: a) recent renewed net inflows to offshore China
equity funds; and b) we expect higher new loans in April, versus March.
Despite our short-term bullish view on China equities, we maintain that
China’s excessive liquidity growth this year (down from 21% in FY09 to
5% in FY10E) may not warrant a sustainable big rally this year as was
seen in FY09. We are still not ruling out the risk of possible additional
tightening measures in 2H10, if China’s economy suffers an overheating
situation, even though this is not our base-case scenario.
• Information: We expect around Rmb500 billion new loans in March.
• Non-consensus calls: We expect H shares to outperform A shares,
given: 1) the substantial supply-side pressure in the A-share market; 2)
the total units of funds of all registered asset management companies in
China actually suffered a decline in FY09 due to the redemption of old
investment funds; and 3) A shares’ premium valuations over H shares.
• China model portfolio adjustment: We stay bullish on: 1) insurance; 2)
banks; 3) small-and-mid caps; 4) consumer discretionary; 5) sectors with
significant operating leverage and those that stand to benefit from real
economic recovery and renminbi appreciation (airlines, paper); and 6)
the defensive growth basket of low penetration rate and strong secular
growth. Meanwhile, we are cautious on: 1) property; 2) FAI-related
sectors; 3) telcos; 4) refineries; 5) consumer staples; and 6) oil service
names.
Table of Contents
Investment summary................................................................4
Market strategy.........................................................................7
MSCI China to rally in April and May?....................................7
The perceived improvements in China’s fundamentals ...............................................7
Rising liquidity flows into China equities..................................................................11
Mindful of concerns and uncertainties to MSCI China’s performance in 2H FY10..13
H-shares to outperform A-shares in the medium term .......13
A-shares’ near-term performance boosted by the launch of A-shares index future ...13
Reasons for H-shares’ outperformance in the medium and longer term....................14
H-shares’ small- and-mid-caps offer good investment opportunities ........................16
Sector views ...........................................................................17
OW: Insurance, banks, consumer discretionary, paper, airlines, and defensive growth
basket .........................................................................................................................17
UW: Property, FAI-related names, telecoms, refinery, consumer stable, and oil
service ........................................................................................................................19
China model portfolio (CMP) adjustments ...........................21
Macroeconomic views ...........................................................29
CNY to resume a gradual appreciation trend.............................................................29
Rate hike kicking in soon to contain inflation expectation ........................................30
Overall economy expanded solidly through 1Q10.....................................................31
Information ................................................................................................................32
Manufacturing PMIs rebounded solidly.....................................................................32
Strong industrial profit growth...................................................................................33
Non-consensus calls...................................................................................................34
China’s first trade deficit in six years likely temporary .............................................34
Autos .......................................................................................36
What is changing .......................................................................................................36
Information ................................................................................................................37
FY09 results review of Chinese auto companies .......................................................37
Non-consensus calls...................................................................................................39
We raise our FY10 and FY11 auto sales estimates for China....................................40
Consumer................................................................................51
Consumer staples .......................................................................................................51
2010: year of normalization .......................................................................................52
Financials: Banks...................................................................54
Changes......................................................................................................................54
Information ................................................................................................................58
Key stock highlights ..................................................................................................60
Healthcare ...............................................................................61
Essential drug list has started trials – more beneficial for pharmaceutical makers and
TCM than distributors................................................................................................61
Company highlights...................................................................................................62
Sinopharm..................................................................................................................62
China Shineway .........................................................................................................62
Real estate ..............................................................................64
Policy risk heating up, stock price overhang in near term .........................................64
Non-consensus calls...................................................................................................68
Technology: Hardware...........................................................70
What is changing?......................................................................................................70
Information ................................................................................................................72
Telecoms.................................................................................74
China Telco annual results.........................................................................................74
Industry news.............................................................................................................75
Transportation ........................................................................76
Key investment themes ..............................................................................................76
What is changing .......................................................................................................76
Recommendations......................................................................................................77
Utilities & Infrastructure.........................................................78
Utilities ....................................................................................78
What is changing?......................................................................................................78
Can expensive new gas drive the growth? ..........................81
Information ................................................................................................................85
Infrastructure ..........................................................................86
What’s new ................................................................................................................86
What’s changing? ......................................................................................................87
J.P. Morgan China Equity Research Team ................................................................90