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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月日本铁路行业研究报告
【作者】：野村证券
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：125
【目录或简介】：
With Chinese rivals gearing up for full-scale overseas expansion, coming 3–5
years are vital for Japanese companies looking to cultivate new markets: The
market for railway infrastructure continues to grow at a steady pace. China is working
at a feverish pitch to build its railway network, and we think it highly likely that the
main routes will be completed by 2015, including metro systems. Local companies
such as China South Locomotive [1766 HK] (Buy; HKD6.18, 1 April close), which
has large production capacity, are gearing up for full-scale overseas expansion. From
the standpoint of securing new markets and gaining new orders, we think the next
three to five years will be crucial for the big three rolling stock manufacturers and their
Japanese counterparts. In our view, these companies will need to carefully sift
through the markets that exist and the projects on offer.
· Japanese companies likely to target US and Chinese markets, projects in
Vietnam and China; less likely to secure work in Brazil: Since mid-2009 Japan’s
leading railway-related companies, such as Central Japan Railway (JR Tokai)
[9022] (Neutral; ¥728,000, 6 April close), have made it clear they intend actively to
target overseas markets. Under its PPP (public-private partnership) strategy, Japan’s
aim is to combine ODA financing with infrastructure packages. While targeting the US
and China as important markets, we expect Japanese companies also to pursue
projects in Vietnam and India, where Japan has already started offering STEP yen
loans. Judging by prequalification criteria for Brazil’s high-speed railway project, we
now think Japanese companies are fairly unlikely to win orders.
· Chuo Shinkansen likely to employ superconducting maglev technology: JR
Tokai aims to have the Chuo Shinkansen operational between Tokyo and Nagoya by
2025. The new shinkansen line is likely to employ superconducting maglev
technology, which Japan has been developing for many years. It is considered
superior to the technology used for the Shanghai Transrapid in terms of both
acceleration and levitation. The most important parts are the superconducting
magnets mounted below the carriage and ground coils for the guide way. JR Tokai is
scheduled to complete construction in FY13 to extend the existing maglev test route
in Yamanashi, in time for which it will require 14 new carriages. Behind the scenes
there are apparently moves to award some of the project to companies other than
general contractors.
Railway infrastructure (2)
Overseas expansion, Chuo Shinkansen moving into new
phase
This report is a follow-up to our Anchor Report on railway infrastructure published in
English on 21 July, and entitled Winning major orders and expanding sales channels will
be crucial. It outlines subsequent changes in overseas markets and looks at plans to build
the Chuo Shinkansen. With their Chinese rivals growing rapidly and gearing up for fullscale
overseas expansion, the next three to five years will likely be crucial for Japanese
railway-related companies from the standpoint of securing new markets. Time is limited,
and Japanese companies will need to be highly selective with regard to the markets and
projects they tackle. We think they are most likely to target the US and Chinese markets,
as well as projects in Vietnam and China. Yen loans extended under Japan’s PPP
strategy for overseas markets—specifically, under the STEP scheme—should increase
the probability of Japanese companies winning contracts for overseas infrastructure
projects. Regarding the Chuo Shinkansen, we summarize the technologies involved in
superconducting maglev railways and perform a simulation of future demand. Our
simulation suggests that the Southern Alps route is preferable, and would require about
860 carriages around the time of the opening of the Tokyo–Nagoya stretch. In terms of
stock selection, our focus is on companies meeting criteria such as: (1) a track record in
China and other overseas markets; (2) bids entered for contracts they are highly likely to
win; (3) order selectiveness; (4) clearly delineated business strategies; and (5) the
1. Trends in China, where railway infrastructure is rapidly expanding, and in
other key markets (K. Miyachi) ...................................................................................... 5
2. Japan's PPP strategy for overseas markets (K. Miyachi) .......................................... 21
3. Japan has spent many years developing superconducting maglev technology
for high-speed railways (K. Miyachi)............................................................................ 28
4. Chuo Shinkansen earnings outlook and rolling stock demand forecasts
(M. Murayama)................................................................................................................ 37
5. Expanding domestic market for PSDs and PEDs (K. Miyachi / R. Tazaki) ................... 55
6. Individual company comments ............................................................................... 57
(1) Central Japan Railway [9022] (Neutral; ¥728,000) (M. Murayama) ........................................57
Nippon Sharyo [7102] (No rating; ¥577) (R. Tazaki) .............................................................. 59
(2) Hitachi [6501] (Buy; ¥366) (M. Yamasaki)...............................................................................64
(3) Kawasaki Heavy Industries [7012] (Neutral; ¥259) (S. Okazaki) ............................................65
(4) Kinki Sharyo [7122] (No rating; ¥652) (R. Tazaki) ..................................................................72
(5) China South Locomotive & Rolling Stock [1766 HK] (Buy; HK$6.18) (J. Shao / S. Chow) ......76
(6) China CNR Corp [601299 CH] (Neutral; RMB5.64) (J. Shao / S. Chow) .................................77
(7) Alstom [ALO FP] (Buy;
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