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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月英国证券市场投资策略报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：51
【目录或简介】：
Having picked up strongly during 2009, housing market activity
slowed around the turn of the year. Latest figures suggest some of this
slowdown was due to technical factors, most notably the end of the
stamp duty holiday, and that activity levels will probably rebound in
the coming months.
• Figures published by the Council of Mortgage Lenders this week show
that the number of first-time buyers recovered in the three months to
February, with around 50,000 first-time buyers, 60% higher than in the
same period a year earlier. Even allowing for the impact of lower loanto-
value ratios than experienced prior to the correction in credit
markets, first-time buyer activity is, in our view, likely to remain on a
gentle upward trend in the coming months, supporting a further
recovery in overall housing activity.
• Mirroring the softening in housing market indicators around the turn of
the year, the housebuilding sector also lost some of its earlier upward
momentum, underperforming the broader market by close to 10% in
the first quarter. On less than 1x book value, we believe the valuation
support for housebuilders is sufficiently attractive to support a renewed
period of outperformance in the current quarter and beyond. Within the
sector, we recommend overweight positions in Persimmon and Taylor
Wimpey.
• It is underperforming cyclicals, such as housebuilders, rather than
underperforming defensives, that should be the focus of investors
currently. Given their lack of forecast earnings growth, a number of
defensive sectors have experienced a re-rating relative to the market in
recent months, despite their underperformance.
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