2010年4月加拿大银行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月加拿大银行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：68
        【目录或简介】：
Canadian Banks
Inaugural Monthly Monitor:
Continued Signs of Economic
Recovery; Consumer Credit
Improving
Implications: This represents our inaugural Canadian
Banks Monthly Monitor, examining industry-wide trends
in loans, deposits, credit and macroeconomic indicators.
Economic indicators in Canada continue to improve, led
by a higher Composite Leading Indicator Index and
higher capacity utilization as well as rising consumer
confidence. Total loans increased by an annualized
2.8% on a q/q basis in February, driven by continued
growth in mortgage loans (up 7.8% annualized). We
expect mortgage growth to remain strong in the near
term ahead of expected rate increases by the Bank of
Canada (MS economists forecast a June rate hike).
Economic Indicators
• The Canadian Composite Leading Indicator Index, an
indicator of cyclical activity in the economy, hit an
all-time high in February 2010 (231.6) and was up
5.8% y/y.
• The consumer confidence index rose to 95 in March
and is now 41.5 points higher than the all-time low hit
in December 2008.
• Capacity utilization was up for the second straight
quarter (to 70.9%), following nine consecutive
quarters of declines.
Credit Quality
• The industry NCO rate declined 13bps in 4Q09, from
0.80% to 0.67%, and the GIL ratio for consumer loans
fell 4bps to 0.69%.
• The unemployment rate remained flat in March at
8.2%, down 0.5% from its high in August 2009.
• For the month ended December 2009, consumer
bankruptcies fell to their lowest level since August
2008 (7,744) while business bankruptcies reached an
all-time low (368).

Table Of Contents
We recognize the contribution of Manan Gosalia to this report
1. Deposits 5. Interest and Exchange Rates
􀂃 Total Deposits 4 􀂃 Treasury Spreads vs. 3mo LIBOR 31
􀂃 Demand and Notice Deposits 5 􀂃 Prime Business Rate - 1mo Bankers' Acceptance Rate 32
􀂃 Fixed Term Deposits 6 􀂃 Bank of Canada Target Rate 33
􀂃 Deposits vs. Loans 7 􀂃 3mo LIBOR 33
􀂃 3mo LIBOR - O/N Money Market Rate 33
2. Loans 􀂃 Effective Interest Rates 34
􀂃 Total Loans 9 􀂃 Treasury Yield Curve 34
􀂃 Mortgage Loans 10 􀂃 Product/Services Rate Snapshot 35
􀂃 Residential Mortgage Loans 11 􀂃 CAD vs. USD and EUR 36
􀂃 Non-residential Mortgage Loans 12
􀂃 Non-mortgage Loans 13 6. Credit Quality
􀂃 Commercial Loans 14 􀂃 Consumer Bankruptcy Filings 38
􀂃 Consumer Loans 15 􀂃 Business Bankruptcy Filings 39
􀂃 Total Bankruptcy Filings 40
3. Funding Sources 􀂃 Credit Ratios: Total Loans 41
􀂃 Consumer and Business Credit Outstanding 17 􀂃 Credit Ratios: Mortgage Loans 42-44
􀂃 Sources of Household Credit 18 􀂃 Credit Ratios: Non-mortgage Loans 45-47
􀂃 Bond Issuances – Financial and Non-Financial Corporations 19 􀂃 Credit Card Master Trust Data 48
4. Macroeconomic Indicators 7. Capital Markets
􀂃 GDP Growth Rate 21 􀂃 Equity Underwriting 50
􀂃 Inflation 21 􀂃 Investment Grade Debt Underwriting 51
􀂃 Total Reserves minus Gold 22 􀂃 High Yield Debt Underwriting 52
􀂃 Capacity Utilization 23 􀂃 M&A (Announced & Completed) Volume 53
􀂃 SLOS Business Lending Conditions 23 􀂃 M&A Revenues 54
􀂃 BOS Availability of Credit 23
􀂃 Financial Conditions Index 24 8. Valuation
􀂃 Leading Indicators Index 24 􀂃 Market Indices 56-57
􀂃 Manufacturing Inventories 25 􀂃 Coverage Universe Performance 58
􀂃 Money Supply 25
􀂃 Total Employment 26 9. Canada vs. US
􀂃 Unemployment Rate 26 􀂃 GDP Growth 60
􀂃 Housing Price Index 27 􀂃 Unemployment 61
􀂃 Housing Affordability Index 27 􀂃 Housing Price Index 62
􀂃 Consumer Confidence Index 28 􀂃 Debt Service Ratio 63

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 行业研究 加拿大 大银行 研究报告 加拿大 银行业

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