2010年4月美国汽车零部件行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国汽车零部件行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：102
        【目录或简介】：
Zero-to-Sixty - April 2010
FORECAST INCREASE
1Q10 Earnings Preview; Mo' Money
■
Earnings Momentum: The feature in this month's Zero to Sixty report is our
1Q10 earnings preview. The summary conclusion: most auto/supplier
companies are still likely to top consensus estimates, in our opinion. We
have reviewed EPS estimates for all of our companies; most saw upward
revisions.
■
Who's Driving?: There seem to be two drivers behind the Q1 earnings
momentum: first, European production was a bit stronger than expected (up
28% y/y vs. our forecast of +22%); second, production on key platforms in
North America (especially GM full-size pickups and SUVs) was quite strong
even though overall NA output was only up modestly vs. 4Q09.
■
Favorable Profile: That profile sets up particularly well for AXL and LEA,
both of whom we expect to handily top consensus estimates. But GM overbuilt
those trucks in the first quarter, setting up a more questionable profile
for Q2 and beyond.
■
Attractive Combination: We highlight TRW as having perhaps the best
combination of 1Q10 upside surprise potential and a valuation that still looks
very conservative. TRW remains our top pick in the auto sector.
■
Ford's Over/Under: We have raised our 1Q10 estimate for Ford to
$0.33/share from $0.26; the current consensus stands at $0.31. Wild cards
include the finance division, and automotive ops in Europe and South
America. As far as share price momentum goes, we think the over/under on
the quarter is something closer to $0.40/share (pretty close to what Ford
earned in 4Q09). Anything much lower than that and investors might
question the earnings momentum here. A print north of $0.40 and we're
likely to see another squeeze to the upside.

Table of contents
1Q Earnings Preview 4
Quick Summary 4
Estimate Revisions – Highlights and Commentary 4
Updated Production Outlook 8
North America Sales & Production Outlook 9
Supplier Production Analysis 10
Reconciling Volume Changes with Revenue Expectations 11
OEM Analysis 14
Ford Investment Summary 14
Drilling down on North America 14
DCF-Based Valuation Analysis 18
Key assumptions behind the analysis…. 18
March Sales Recap 21
Quick Summary 21
Detailed Review 21
Market Share 23
Light Truck Mix 24
Segments 25
Full Size Pickup Update 25
Luxury Brand Penetration 27
Consumer Watch 28
Quick Summary 28
Detailed Review 28
Consumer Watch Scorecard 29
New Car Prices & Auto Loan Rates 29
Consumer Credit for New Car Loans 30
Used Car Prices 33
Unemployment 34
University of Michigan Data 35
Consumer Debt 36
Housing Watch 36
New and Existing Home Prices 36
New and Existing Home Inventory 39
Construction Watch 40
Incentives 42
March Incentives 42
Quick Summary 42
Detailed Review 42
Incentive and Volume Tracking by Model 43
Inventory Update 48
Quick Summary 48
Inventory Overview 48
The New “Normal” 49
March Inventory 50
Inventory Sensitivity 50
Evaluating 2Q’10 Inventory Levels in North America 51
Scenarios/Sensitivity Tables—June-End Inventory 52
Days’ Supply 57
Platform Production Monitor 59
Quick Summary 59
North America 59
North American Platform Monitor 60
Consolidated Supplier Exposure – NA Sequential 61
Europe 62
Europe Platform Monitor 63
Consolidated Supplier Exposure – EUR Sequential 64
North America and Europe Combined 65
Under the Hood 66
Quick Summary 66
Detailed Review 66
Discount Rate 66
Latest Market-Implied Profit & Growth Expectations 68
Expectations in Context 69
Historical View of Margin Expectations 69
Under the Hood Background 73
Appendix 74
Raw Materials Update 74
Earnings Calendar 77
Currency Update 77
American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc. (AXL) 81
Raising Estimates 81
BorgWarner, Inc. (BWA) 83
Raising Estimates 83
Harman International Industries (HAR) 85
Estimates Unchanged 85
Johnson Controls, Inc. (JCI) 87
Raising Estimates 87
Lear Corp (LEA) 89
Lowering Estimates 89
Magna International (MGA) 91
Raising Estimates 91
Superior Industries, Intl. (SUP) 93
Lowering Estimates 93
Tenneco Inc. (TEN) 95
Estimates Unchanged 95
TRW Automotive Holdings Corp. (TRW) 97
Raising Estimates 97
Ford Motor Co. (F) 99
Raising Estimates 99

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关键词：行业研究报告 汽车零部件 研究报告 行业研究 零部件 美国 研究报告 行业 汽车零部件

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