2010年4月美国食品行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国食品行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：46
        【目录或简介】：
Our investment approach
With initial signs of improvement from both foodservice and the EU, we are
adjusting our investment approach. The last 18 months we favored more U.S.
oriented companies with less foodservice exposure, but it seems reasonable to
broaden our view particularly with evidence that private label is waning. We note a
stronger consumer may also lead to less retailer pressure, as all those connected
to packaged food (except private label) benefit from mix improvement.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Forecast Change
Top picks
Del Monte Foods (DLM.N),USD15.45 Buy
Kellogg (K.N),USD52.81 Buy
General Mills (GIS.N),USD70.82 Buy
Smuckers (SJM.N),USD61.84 Buy
Companies featured
Campbell Soup Company (CPB.N),USD35.36 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 2.22 2.44 2.61
P/E (x) 14.1 14.5 13.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.9 9.1 8.6
ConAgra Foods (CAG.N),USD25.23 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 1.51 1.74 1.87
P/E (x) 12.1 14.5 13.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.1 7.1 6.6
Dean Foods (DF.N),USD16.85 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 1.58 1.55 1.73
P/E (x) 11.9 10.9 9.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.9 6.4 5.9
Flowers Foods (FLO.N),USD25.02 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 1.38 1.53 1.67
P/E (x) 16.8 16.4 15.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.0 7.6 7.1
Heinz (HNZ.N),USD45.87 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 2.90 2.88 3.14
P/E (x) 14.7 15.9 14.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.3 10.1 9.4
The Hershey Company (HSY.N),USD44.12 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 2.17 2.33 2.45
P/E (x) 16.9 18.9 18.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.3 10.2 9.8
Kraft Foods (KFT.N),USD30.24 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 2.07 2.02 2.30
P/E (x) 12.6 14.9 13.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.4 9.3 8.5
McCormick (MKC.N),USD38.43 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 2.35 2.52 2.74
P/E (x) 13.6 15.3 14.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.9 8.6 8.0
Sara Lee (SLE.N),USD13.96 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 1.10 1.06 1.15
P/E (x) 9.4 13.2 12.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.9 6.9 6.8
Related recent research Date
It's All Incremental
Eric R. Katzman, CFA 17 Mar 2010
Intangible Value
Eric R. Katzman, CFA 6 Nov 2009
Embracing Change
Eric R. Katzman, CFA 15 Dec 2008
Upcoming events Date
DB Global Consumer Conf.
Paris, France 15 Jun 2010
Global Markets Research Company
Packaged food: change afoot; upgrading Heinz and Sara Lee to Buy
Our top picks remain DLM, GIS, K and SJM due to a combination of valuation and
other factors. But with our view that foodservice and the EU are slowly improving,
we are raising our opinion on HNZ and SLE from Hold to Buy. While valuation on
both companies is roughly equal to the group, EPS upside is possible if these
important fundamental drivers turn for the better.
Selected changes to price targets & earnings
As we usually use our Fast Food Fact quarterly report to preview upcoming
calendar earnings season, a number of company target and estimate changes are
necessary. With the upgrade of HNZ, we raise the target to $51 from $45 and
boost F2011-F2012 EPS. Similarly for SLE, we raise the target to $16 from $14
and increase EPS longer term. We have made other target changes including:
DLM ($16 to $18), FLO ($27 to $28), HSY ($35 to $39).
Incremental analysis
Our report on incremental growth drivers (dated 3/17/10) led us to believe that
with reasonable productivity levels (2.5%/COGS), modest pricing (2%) and some
inflation (4%), packaged food companies can still deliver targeted 5% EBIT growth
the next 5 years. While numerous scenarios are possible, our analysis points to
the potential for reasonable fundamentals, perhaps less likely M&A but only
modest valuation upside.
Valuation & risks
Food stocks are trading on C2010 multiples of: 15.1x P/E, 12.0x EBIT, 9.9x
EBITDA, 1.8x Sales, 6% FCF Yield. In absolute terms, the multiples are on the low
end of historical ranges. Generally speaking, valuation across the food industry
points to a modest upward bias to performance. Risks for a typical food company
include competition (branded, private label), input costs (raw materials, packaging,
transportation, energy), currency (various). This report changes ratings, price
targets and estimates for several companies under coverage. For a detailed listing
of these changes, see Figure 1 on page 3.

Table of Contents
Our investment approach ................................................................. 3
Change afoot............................................................................................................................3
Heinz: macro + micro......................................................................... 4
Investing behind broad-based industry growth.........................................................................4
Sara Lee: upgrading to Buy .............................................................. 6
Numerous swing factors, but many are positive ......................................................................6
Quarterly preview.............................................................................. 9
Quarterly preview analysis: selected companies......................................................................9
Valuation & risks......................................................................................................................11
Table of Figures
Figure 1: Key Changes ..............................................................................................................3
Figure 2: Campbell Soup Fact Sheet.......................................................................................12
Figure 3: ConAgra Fact Sheet .................................................................................................13
Figure 4: Dean Foods Fact Sheet............................................................................................14
Figure 5: Del Monte Fact Sheet ..............................................................................................15
Figure 6: Flowers Fact Sheet ..................................................................................................16
Figure 7: General Mills Fact Sheet ..........................................................................................17
Figure 8: H. J. Heinz Fact Sheet..............................................................................................18
Figure 9: Hershey Company Fact Sheet .................................................................................19
Figure 10: J.M. Smucker Fact Sheet.......................................................................................20
Figure 11: Kellogg Fact Sheet .................................................................................................21
Figure 12: Kraft Fact Sheet......................................................................................................22
Figure 13: McCormick Fact Sheet...........................................................................................23
Figure 14: Pepsico Fact Sheet ................................................................................................24
Figure 15: Sara Lee Fact Sheet ...............................................................................................25
Figure 16: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Food Equity Research – 04/08/10..........................26
Figure 17: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Food Equity Research – 04/08/10..........................27
Figure 18: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Food Equity Research – 04/08/10..........................28
Figure 19: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Food Equity Research – 04/08/10..........................29
Figure 20: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Food Equity Research – 04/08/10..........................30
Figure 21: Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Food Equity Research – 04/08/10..........................31
Figure 22: Calendar Relative P/E 2010E ..................................................................................32
Figure 23: 2010E P/E Vs Long Term Growth Rate ..................................................................32
Figure 24: Enterprise Value / 2010E Revenue.........................................................................33
Figure 25: Enterprise Value / 2010E EBITDA...........................................................................33
Figure 26: Enterprise Value / 2010E EBIT................................................................................34
Figure 27: 2010E P/E Divided By Total Potential Return .........................................................34
Figure 28: Return On Invested Capital 2010E .........................................................................35
Figure 29: EVA Spread 2010E .................................................................................................35
Figure 30: Dividend Yield ........................................................................................................36

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Figure 31: Tax Rate .................................................................................................................37
Figure 32: EBIT Margin ...........................................................................................................37
Figure 33: COGS % Sales .......................................................................................................38
Figure 34: Total Debt/Capital...................................................................................................38
Figure 35: D&A/Sales..............................................................................................................39
Figure 36: Days Receivables...................................................................................................39
Figure 37: Days Inventory .......................................................................................................40
Figure 38: EBIT Coverage .......................................................................................................40
Figure 39: EBITDA Coverage ..................................................................................................41
Figure 40: Return on Assets ...................................................................................................41
Figure 41: Advertising % Sales ...............................................................................................42

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