2010年4月全球证券市场投资策略报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月全球证券市场投资策略
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：56
        【目录或简介】：
This year-old bull market is looking increasingly like a normal cyclical recovery.
Economic growth and earnings continue to surprise on the upside – and no longer just in
emerging markets – interest rates (both short-term central bank rates and long-term
government bond yields) are starting to rise, and investors (even retail investors) are
slowly taking risk again.
Of course, it wasn’t a normal recession – not only was it the worst since the 1930s, but the
aftermath (ultra-low interest rates and high government debt) will take a long time to clean
up. Worries about these structural issues dragged markets down in January and February and
they will doubtless resurface over coming months, which is likely to depress market returns.
But we see no signs that the economic recovery is peaking out, nor any likelihood of an
earnings recession any time soon. With central bank interest rates in developed markets
likely to stay low for quite a while longer, this amounts to a pretty positive environment for
equities. We expect global stock markets to continue to climb the “wall of worry” over the
next six to nine months and end the year about 10% higher than current levels.
In this environment, our preference remains for markets which have the greatest potential
to surprise on growth but which are less likely to face inflationary pressures and therefore
monetary policy tightening. The US remains our most preferred region. We have cut
emerging markets to underweight from neutral (and are especially wary of China, India
and Brazil) because of overheating and monetary policy headwinds. We raise Europe ex
UK to neutral (and go overweight Spain) because we think sovereign default risks have
been over-egged. We keep our above-consensus neutral rating on Japan.
At the sector level, we are maintaining a cyclical bias and not making any changes to our
sector recommendations. This means we continue to overweight financials (where we
think newsflow on NPLs will continue to be better than the market expects), consumer
discretionary (since expectations for consumer spending remain remarkably subdued) and
IT. And we stay underweight energy, healthcare and utilities.

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关键词：投资策略报告 证券市场 投资策略 市场投资 策略报告 投资 证券 全球

Investment strategy 4
Structural worries, cyclical momentum 4
The View 20
On track 20
Emerging versus developed 21
EPS cycle analysis: MSCI regions 22
Regional recommendations 24
Sector recommendations 28
EPS cycle analysis: MSCI AC World sectors 31
EPS cycle analysis: MSCI AC World sectors
(continued) 32
HSBC country and sector recommendations 33
Data pack 34
Regional performance 35
Major indices performance 36
Regional performance 38
Supersectors and selected cyclicals: price relatives 39
Growth indicators 40
Micro themes 41
Earnings and valuation – Aggregations 42
Revisions ratios: I/B/E/S consensus data (FTSE
World indices) – upgrades as percentage of all
revisions 49
Monetary conditions 50
Liquidity and market conditions 51
Disclosure appendix 53
Disclaimer 55
We acknowledge the efforts of Joseph Turner – Equity
Strategy research assistant – in the production of this report.

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