2010年4月亚洲证券市场投资策略报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月亚洲证券市场投资策略报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：64
        【目录或简介】：
We expect the relatively disappointing performance of Asia ex Japan stocks – up only
13% since last July – to continue for a while.
Growth momentum has peaked. The consensus forecast for 2010 earnings growth, for
example, has been stuck at around 30% for months – and next year it is forecast to slip to
15%. China has even started to see its first earnings downgrades.
Meanwhile, inflation is rising, with Asia-wide headline CPI reaching 5.1% and even core
inflation picking up. Already, Australia, Malaysia and India have raised rates – and their
stock markets underperformed when they did. Most other central banks will push through
their first rate hikes this quarter or next.
We are especially cautious on the region’s two key markets: China (which we cut to
neutral) and India (where we stay underweight). The Chinese market is likely to remain
choppy as uncertainties over monetary tightening and local government debt continue.
India has the highest inflation in Asia (17% at the consumer price level) and the highest
valuation among emerging markets, at a PE of 17x.
The combination of slowing momentum, rising rates and structural worries on China and
India will not be helpful for equities. We expect Asian equities to rise over coming
quarters as long as growth comes through (valuation, with prospective PE at 13.5x, is
reasonable) but to continue to lag global equities.
Among markets, our preference is for those exposed to exports (where growth can still surprise
on the upside) and where there is less risk of rates rising. We upgrade Korea to overweight; it
is cheap and has lagged over the past six months. We remain overweight Taiwan and Hong
Kong. Besides India, we are underweight Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand.
Changes to our sector recommendations mainly reflect rising inflation risk. We cut
consumer staples to underweight, since food makers generally cannot pass on price rises
and may be subject to price controls (as will utilities, where we remain underweight). We
cut banks, especially Chinese banks, to neutral, on continuing worries about NPLs. We
still prefer cyclical sectors, and raise materials and industrials to overweight.

Investment strategy 4
Running out of steam 4
Market recommendations 19
Switch from China to Korea 19
Results from the scorecard 20
Recommended weights 21
Sector recommendations/
investment themes 25
Increasing cyclical exposure 25
Main markets 29
Japan (neutral) 30
China (neutral) & Hong Kong (overweight) 32
Korea (overweight) 35
Taiwan (overweight) 37
India (underweight) 39
Other markets 41
Australia 42
Singapore 43
Malaysia 44
Indonesia 45
Thailand 46
Philippines 47
Datapack 48
Country/sector performance 48
Earnings 50
Valuation 51
Supply & demand 52
Politics and risk 53
Sectors and stocks 54
Economic forecasts 58
Disclosure appendix 61
Disclaimer 63

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