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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月韩国钢铁行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：59
【目录或简介】：
Korean players well positioned amid Asia’s growing steel demand
Despite concerns on rising raw material costs, we believe large Korean mills will
continue to benefit as they tap into growing demand in China, India, SE Asia and
the Middle East in the long term. We expect the cycle to remain strong with
Korean steel makers well positioned to grow volumes on the back of their
competitive advantage in location and steel mill capacity. Our view of stable
margins through export market diversification and cost efficiencies underpins our
positive view. We recommend POSCO as our top Buy.
Deutsche Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Industry Update
Top picks
POSCO (005490.KS),KRW538,000.00 Buy
Hyundai Steel (004020.KS),KRW87,700.00 Buy
Companies featured
POSCO (005490.KS),KRW538,000.00 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 13.9 8.2 8.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.4 4.1 3.3
Price/book (x) 1.74 1.30 1.15
Hyundai Steel (004020.KS),KRW87,700.00 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) 8.7 12.0 7.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.2 9.0 5.0
Price/book (x) 1.12 1.04 0.92
Dongkuk Steel Mill (001230.KS),KRW24,650.00Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) – 8.1 6.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.8 4.1 3.3
Price/book (x) 0.60 0.52 0.48
Global Markets Research Company
Bullish on growth; expanding economies provide opportunities
Apparent steel consumption for Asia is highly correlated to GDP growth, and has
consistently trended above the global average over the past decade. China, India
and Vietnam steel consumption increased 228%, 78% and 192%, respectively,
between 2000 and 2008 (vs. global average +54% and Korea +53%). Deutsche
Bank economists forecast Asia ex Japan GDP growth in 2010 of 8.2% vs. 2009 of
5.6%
Short term: Price hikes to offset raw material concerns
Pricing power is driven by healthy end demand, and price hikes are possible as
industry demand is growing at a healthy level, similar to the strength we saw in
April 2008 (when POSCO raised prices following substantial raw material price
hike). We believe higher steel prices will offset rising costs, and expect POSCO to
hike domestic prices for major products in 2Q10-3Q10 by 10-20%. Our belief is
based on 1) the extent and timing of historical price hikes following raw materials
price increases, 2) healthy end-demand industry across the board (except
shipbuilding), and 3) a low inventory levels.
Long term: Supply constraints, stable demand growth to support pricing
Deutsche Bank forecasts Asia’s crude steel production growth to slow in 2011 to
7% vs.2000-2009 CAGR of 10% (Chinese steel production growth falling to 8% in
2011, vs.2000-2009 CAGR of 18%). Longer-term, we believe demand for steel in
the region will remain solid and we like companies with overseas exposures. In
2009, POSCO and Hyundai Steel shipped 35% and 25% of products to the
overseas market.
Top pick is POSCO; key risks – slowdown in demand industry
Our top pick is POSCO on 1) scale and cost efficiency, 2) overseas exposures and
3) cheap valuations. We also like Hyundai Steel on market share gains as it moves
into new blast furnaces. However, we remain cautious on Dongkuk Steel due to
its large exposure to the shipbuilding industry (47% heavy plates in 2009) and
limited overseas exposure (8% in 2009). Our price targets are W700,000 for
POSCO (30% upside potential), W107,000 for Hyundai Steel (20% upside
potential) and W27,000 for Dongkuk Steel (8.5% downside potential). Key risks are
a slowdown in industry demand, which could block steel price hikes, acquisition of
non-core assets, and further raw material price increases.Table of Contents
Executive summary ........................................................................... 3
Positive long-term outlook outweighs short-term concerns .....................................................3
Risks ........................................................................................................................................4
Positive outlook on higher steel prices, cost efficiencies .............. 5
POSCO’s earnings could be boosted with a price hike in 2010, allaying market concerns over
raw material prices....................................................................................................................5
Electric arc mills have also passed on raw material price hikes................................................8
Key earnings driver and share price driver: steel price............................................................12
Korean steel makers: well positioned to grow ............................. 15
How did Korean steel industry react to China’s massive capacity expansion from 2000 to
2009? .....................................................................................................................................15
Changes in Korea steel market (2000 vs. 2009) ......................................................................17
Why are we positive on steel mills’ exposures to overseas market? .....................................21
Short-term concerns on raw materials; history can soothe the
worry ................................................................................................ 23
Game change: steel makers give quarter................................................................................23
Industry demand check-up: Korea steel makers can pass on cost hikes ................................24
POSCO shines in a crisis.........................................................................................................30
Long-term: Regional supply-demand outlook positive................ 33
Slowing supply growth in Asia expected from 2011...............................................................33
Asia steel demand growth will outpace supply growth ..........................................................36
POSCO.............................................................................................. 38
Hyundai Steel................................................................................... 44
Dongkuk Steel Mill .......................................................................... 50
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