2010年4月日本汽车行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月日本汽车行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：49
        【目录或简介】：

Positive view on sector growth potential
We continue to have a positive view on the earnings outlook for the major
Japanese auto assemblers heading into FY3/11. Two out of three of our core
variables are pointing in a positive direction, while the third, cost, should see
higher metal prices neutralized by internal cost cutting measures. We see good
value and moderate/low risk levels for blue chip names given the low-base for US
demand and ¥/US$. We recommend Honda, Nissan and Daihatsu.
Deutsche Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Forecast Change
Top picks
Nissan Motor (7201.T),¥813 Buy
Honda Motor (7267.T),¥3,265 Buy
Daihatsu Motor (7262.T),¥874 Buy
Companies featured
Nissan Motor (7201.T),¥813 Buy
Toyota Motor (7203.T),¥3,710 Hold
Mazda Motor (7261.T),¥265 Hold
Daihatsu Motor (7262.T),¥874 Buy
Honda Motor (7267.T),¥3,265 Buy
Suzuki Motor (7269.T),¥2,005 Hold
Fuji Heavy Industries (7270.T),¥515 Hold
Global Markets Research Company
Key variables point to sector earnings growth
Material price hikes are the latest point of worry for the sector. We have increased
our assumed negative impact per unit from higher metal prices to $250 in FY3/11
and $100 in FY3/12 to reflect this pressure. We see the current situation as
differing from FY3/09 in that the current inflation is centered on metals while two
years ago we saw $350-$400 per unit increases, peak oil prices pushed up prices
across the supply chain from resins to transportation. While we have applied
higher cost assumptions, a change in our assumed FX rate from ¥90/US$ to
¥95/US$ largely nullifies the impact to our previous earnings estimates. We
continue to see gearing to volume growth in N. America and developing markets
as the key variable for our outlook over the next two years.
4Q to top COE, while conservative outlooks expected
Mazda and Daihatsu kick off the earnings season (4/27) followed by Honda (4/28),
FHI (5/7), Suzuki (5/10), Toyota (5/11) and Nissan (5/12). We expect all companies
to top their FY COE with FHI, Honda, and Nissan as standouts. However, despite a
positive outlook for volumes, guidance for the coming year will likely be subdued
on assumptions for FX and material prices. Flat to moderate growth will likely be
the typical view to start the year with guidance risk at Suzuki and Mazda, we
believe. It will be interesting to see what Toyota guides coming out of its recall
troubles and with concerns over a sharp decline in 2H Japan demand.
Improve fundamental outlook for Toyota, FHI, and Mazda in FY3/11e
We have adjusted our earnings forecasts across our coverage for the changes in
macro factors discussed above. Beyond that, we have raised core earnings
assumptions at FHI and Toyota. FHI continues to show ability to extract more
production out of its US facility than we had anticipated, helping it keep pace with
assumed market recovery at an incrementally high profit point. We upped our
FY3/11 EPS estimate (¥38 from ¥31). For Toyota, we have reduced assumed
market share losses in the US following the recall issues as incentive programs
have been effective. Combined with higher gearing to the US$ assumption it has
improved our earnings outlook (EPS ¥145 from ¥114). We continue to project a
negative impact on pricing lowering its gearing to a US recovery. For Mazda we
increased our unit sales forecasts and upped our EPS (¥11.8 from ¥5.4). For
Suzuki, our EPS forecast rises from ¥64 to ¥71.
Valuation/Risk
We made adjustments to our target prices. Significant changes have been made
at Toyota (¥4,000 to ¥4,250), FHI (¥460 to ¥540), Honda (¥4,300 to ¥4,150) and
Mazda (¥240 to ¥270). We base our sector valuations on EV/EBITDA to better
reflect relative balance sheet strength. Global macro growth outlook, forex
volatility and government policy present both upside and downside sector risk.

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