2010年4月全球证券市场投资策略

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月全球证券市场投资策略
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：56
        【目录或简介】：
Risk appetite is back, strengthening EM
assets and currencies
 But watch out for overheating in EM,
particularly Asia and especially China
Sweet spot – but beware too much
of a good thing
For now the risk trade looks to be back in favour. Despite
lingering concerns over Greece, risk appetite has picked up on a
view that the global recovery is broadening to include a stronger
US labour market and service sector, the belief that G3
monetary policy will remain loose, and continued strength in
economic growth in China. The process is again being
supported by an element of dollar recycling. Global reserve
assets have been increasing and the recycling into treasuries has
supported treasury prices and so emphasised yield and
prospective return in EM. On the currency front, a number of
central banks in Asia and Latam are intervening again, and even
the National Bank of Poland has been in the market to signal
resistance to additional currency strength. But such intervention
is only slowing not preventing strengthening.
Some of the obvious risks have become less onerous. On
Greece, we still don’t have all of the details, and there
remain some concerns about implementation risk, but the
announced package is big and the financing rate (5%) is
currently substantially below market yields. It has not solved
the bigger issue of the sovereign risk overhang in the
developed world, but it looks like an effective backstop plan.
In any case EM seems to be increasingly shrugging off angst
about Greece choosing to focus on a broadening global
recovery and the prospect of continued loose G3 monetary
policy rather than succumb to contagion.
This said, the broader concern about debt sustainability in
the developed world is likely to continue to surface from
time to time to disturb the market, and EM assets and
currencies will not be immune. And there is another concern,
the risk of overheating in EM, particularly in Asia, and
especially in China where growth remains perilously strong
and inflation risks are on the rise. The old adage still rings
true: beware too much of a good thing.

Key country calls 3
Market Calls 5
Cross asset 6
FX 10
Sovereign debt 12
Equity 16
Commodities 19
Macro convictions 21
Asia needs to tighten 22
Mexico: no doubt about economic recovery, but how strong
is it? 24
Russia: rouble outlook for Q2 – mostly sunny, some clouds27
Corporate convictions 31
BOC Hong Kong (credit, Hong Kong) 32
Chimei Innolux (equity, Taiwan) 34
Dah Sing Banking Group (credit, Hong Kong) 35
Company (Petrochem) (equity, Saudi Arabia) 37
Tencent (equity, China) 38
VTB (credit, Russia) 39
Databook 41
Appendix: risk-adjusted return
methodology 44
Disclosure appendix 49
Disclaimer 54

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关键词：市场投资 证券市场 投资策略 Increasingly intervention 投资 证券 全球