【出版时间及名称】:2010年4月西班牙银行业研究报告
【作者】:LARRAIN VIAL S.A. CORREDORA DE BOLSA
【文件格式】:pdf
【页数】:34
【目录或简介】:
In our report “Equity Handbook 2010” (March 19th 2010), we updated upward our target prices for the
shares under coverage of the banking sector due to an increase in our profitability estimates for 2010 and
2011 without changing our view of the industry in the long term.
Although the first half of 2010 could be quite volatile in terms of growth and portfolio quality due to the
effects of the earthquake, we project that 2010 and 2011 will be good years for the industry.
The main challenge for the sector is to maintain the quality of its credit portfolio stable, proactively managing
the increase of provisions in loans exposed to the earthquake and those affected by regulatory changes
in the loan provision model.
We estimate that the system’s net income will increase by 12% during 2010, driven mainly by a 15% growth
of net interest income, based on the 12% growth of credit and a projected inflation of 3.3%. The year 2011
could be even better, since the system’s net income would increase 14%, boosted by lower expenditures
on provisions.
Shares under coverage incorporate most of this scenario and the valuation opportunities are limited. The
volatility that we will observe in industry results during the next months could be reflected in adjustments
to their valuations and, therefore, could generate buy opportunities.
Among the banks under coverage, the shares of BCI and Corpbanca stand out. Their multiples show that
the expected increases in their results during 2010-2011 are not yet fully incorporated in their valuation,
so our recommendation is to buy.
Among the shares under coverage, SMCHILEB shows the highest upside (24%). This is based on the good
operational prospects for Banco de Chile which, on the one hand, would increase the value of Banco de
Chile shares it holds, and on the other hand, it would allow them to finish to pay all of the subordinate debt
in 2019.
Index
I. Economic Base Scenario 3
II. Recent Events and Forecasts 4
Loan Portfolio Growth and Credit Conditions 4
Net Interest Margin: Spreads and Inflation 6
Fees and Treasury Income 7
Loan Portfolio Quality 7
Loan Portfolio Quality Risks 8
Efficiency 9
Net Income and Profitability 10
Industry Forecasts Summary 11
III. Institutional Investors and Valuation Ratios 12
Institutional Investors: Pension Funds and Mutual Funds 12
Valuation Ratios 13
IV. Banks under Coverage 14
Banco Santander 14
Banco de Chile 18
Sociedad Matriz del Banco de Chile (SMCHILEB) 22
Banco de Crédito e Inversiones (BCI) 25
Corpbanca 29