2010年4月马来西亚银行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月马来西亚银行业研究报告
        【作者】：BNP百富勤
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：28
        【目录或简介】：
Industry loan growth remains strong at 9.8% y-y.
􀂃 Strong loan applications (+22.4% y-y) should fuel loan growth.
􀂃 Consumer credit quality improved across the board, led by mortgages.
􀂃 Still Positive on banks as CIMB being our top sector pick.
Good omen
Encouraging industry trend
We reiterate our Positive stance on Malaysian banks despite the recent rally that
saw the KL Financial Index rise 12.6% since the 9 February lows. The rally was
particularly sharp following the 25bp rate hike on 4 March. The recent industry
data for the quarter ended March throws up some positive trends that reinforce
our view that there is room for bank stocks to run.
Positive aplenty
Key takeaways from the March industry data: 1) loan growth remained strong
(+9.8% y-y) despite larger loan repayments of MYR58b – their largest since
December 2007; 2) a strong rebound in loan applications (+22.4%) that will
continue to drive loan growth; 3) corporate loan quality remained relatively intact;
and 4) an across-the-board improvement in consumer credit quality, led by
residential mortgages (Exhibit 7).
Positive outlook
Our optimism is supported by three fundamental reasons: 1) expectations of
stronger loan growth on the back of strong loan applications (Exhibit 13); 2) fatter
net interest margins (NIM), aided by rising interest rate, and price rationality for
auto and mortgage loans; and 3) lower credit charges as credit quality improves
(Exhibit 1-2) on the back of an improving economy. This should help drive
earnings growth in 2010-11.
Valuation remains compelling; CIMB is top sector pick
From a P/E valuation standpoint, banks are still trading below their historical
averages. We believe a re-rating to historical averages is possible as ROEs are
clearly returning to their glorious past. This is especially true for CIMB and AMMB.
CIMB is our top sector pick. We like CIMB for its high operating leverage that will
help drive a strong 24.8% EPS CAGR over FY09-12.

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关键词：行业研究报告 行业研究 研究报告 马来西亚 银行业 研究报告 银行业 马来西亚