【出版时间及名称】:2010年4月欧洲传媒行业研究报告
【作者】:德意志银行
【文件格式】:pdf
【页数】:69
【目录或简介】:
And so it begins…
The media reporting season kicks off next week with a raft of Q1 results and
trading statements. The detail varies stock to stock but we focus on 3 big trends:
1. Media owners: Is growth accelerating into Q2? At 2x EV/sales the TV subsector
is not yet obviously expensive (20-40% margins historically), but is
certainly reaching the point where structural questions and long term margin
prospects start to become relevant. We favour those with still modest
valuations and operating / financial leverage to advertising upside: BUYs: ITV
(75p tgt), ProSieben (E13.0 tgt), Mediaset (E7.0 tgt).
2. Agencies: How much does full year consensus of c0-2% need to move up?
And how much of this can drop through to margin? Q1 revenue performance
from Havas (+1.5%), Publicis (+3.1%) and Omnicom (+2.1%) has surprised to
the upside. While comps get tougher in H2, it is increasingly plausible to
conceive of FY-10 revenue growth at around 5%, particularly as media owners
continue to report strong growth. We believe the “margin debate” is a valid
issue, but “margin squeeze” (or “less-margin-expansion-than hoped-for”) is
much more a 2011 than 2010 issue. Hence, we are likely not facing EPS
downside risk in either year. We prefer big cap agencies for greater exposure
to US/EM/Digital: BUYs: WPP (780p tgt) and Publicis (E37.0 tgt).
3. Professional publishers: Q1s are generally dull and disclosure poor. Most of
the IMSs are devoid of any numbers. That said, we will look for green shoots
in conferences/shows attendee volumes, in transaction products and in some
subscription renewals. BUYs: UBM (650p tgt) more/earlier cyclical, US
exposure and Reed Elsevier (570p tgt) a special situation on the potential, at
H1, that management might share with us their plan for Legal turnaround.
Intra-sector rotation is a consideration for here on. Our view is that rotation from
the very-cyclical (media owners) to the very-defensive (publishers/Vivendi) skipping
the somewhat-cyclical (agencies, on just 13x 2011E PE) would be very premature.
Table of contents
Antena 3 Page 03
BSkyB Page 05
Daily Mail & GT Page 13
Eniro Page 16
Gruppo L'Espresso Page 22
Havas Page 24
ITV PLC Page 25
Johnston Press Page 26
MTG Page 27
Publicis Page 39
Q1 IMS Season Page 43
RCS MediaGroup Page 50
SES Page 51
Trinity Mirror Plc Page 52