2010年4月以色列证券市场投资策略报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月以色列证券市场投资策略报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：102
        【目录或简介】：

A new addition to developed markets
MSCI reclassifies Israel as a developed market from 26 May, adding it to the MSCI
EAFE and World indices with a weighting of 0.9% and 0.4%, respectively. Israel’s
growth characteristics are more in line with emerging than developed markets, so
it can offer developed investors the opportunity to enjoy emerging style growth
and performance without having to invest off-index. The country steered through
the financial crisis relatively unscathed, posting 0.7% GDP growth last year, while
we expect 3.7% and 4.4% growth in 2010 and 2011E, respectively.
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Special Report
Top picks
Bezeq (BEZQ.TA),ILS9.26 Buy
Bank Leumi (LUMI.TA),ILS17.00 Buy
Relative index performance
Global Markets Research Company
Local index at an all-time high, yet valuations reasonable
The benchmark TA-25 index for Israeli equities is up nearly threefold in the past
decade, outperforming both the MSCI EAFE and EM indices considerably. Despite
this, valuations appear reasonable, with the market trading on 12x forward P/E, in
line with the long-term average. Domestic investors dominate both ownership of
Israeli equities and trading volumes, so beyond near-term volatility and increased
flow from passive index trackers, we do not anticipate the upgrade to dramatically
affect the market. Indeed, the TA-25 recently reached an all-time high despite
months of net selling from EM investors and limited DM inflows.
Stocks to own: Bezeq and Bank Leumi
Given its weighting, we expect DM investors to seek exposure to 1-2 Israeli
stocks. The stocks to own in our view are Bezeq and Bank Leumi. Bezeq stands to
benefit from recent infrastructure investments across its diversified portfolio of
services. The new HSPA network should lead to improved ARPU and market share
at cellular subsidiary Pelephone. In fixed telephony, NGN enables additional
efficiencies that will allow for further margin expansion. Bezeq offers investors a
high 9% dividend yield from ongoing operations, with potential upside if capital
gains are generated from asset sales and/or another capital reduction is
implemented by new owners in the longer term. Bank Leumi’s liquid and wellcapitalized
balance sheet positions it to benefit from growth opportunities in the
local economy in coming years. We expect 19% annual net income growth to
2012E based on 1) improving NIMs as interest rates rise, 2) lower provisions as
credit quality improves, 3) higher earnings from its equity stakes in local
corporations, and 4) improved cost efficiencies. The bank is due for privatization
this year, which we expect to heighten investor interest, especially given
unchallenging multiples of 1.0x 2011E P/BV and 8.5x P/E.
Sector to watch: energy
Israel has a nascent natural gas sector following the discovery of 7 TCF at the
Tamar offshore field. It was the largest gas field discovered globally last year,
enough to satisfy domestic demand for the next 25-30 years. A recent US
Geological Survey report estimates that a mean of 122 TCF of recoverable gas
exists in the Levant basin, most of which is in Israeli territorial waters. Further
exploratory drilling is planned in 2010-11, the results of which could have
significant implications for the sector, opening export potential

Table of Contents
Executive summary ........................................................................... 4
Outlook ....................................................................................................................................4
Valuation ..................................................................................................................................5
Risks ........................................................................................................................................5
Market outlook .................................................................................. 6
Upgrade to developed market status........................................................................................6
Main characteristics of the Israeli market ...............................................................................12
Israeli telecoms = dividends ........................................................... 17
High yields drive investment case ..........................................................................................17
Bezeq: Our top pick in the sector............................................................................................17
Partner: New owner bringing changes....................................................................................20
Cellcom: Solid and stable........................................................................................................22
Regulator is the key sector risk ...............................................................................................23
Birth of a sector: energy.................................................................. 25
Israel could become an energy player ....................................................................................25
Several ways to invest in the sector .......................................................................................28
Banks – quality gaps widen ............................................................ 29
Leumi leads the way...............................................................................................................29
Asset quality ...........................................................................................................................30
Capital adequacy – the impact on dividends and ROE............................................................35
Cost efficiency compared .......................................................................................................36
Leumi’s balance sheet better positioned for growth ..............................................................38
Can Hapoalim’s new strategic plan close the gap? ................................................................42
Earnings outlook .....................................................................................................................43
Valuation and risks ..................................................................................................................44
Chemicals – commodity prices are key driver .............................. 46
Key companies: ICL and Makhteshim.....................................................................................46
ICL..........................................................................................................................................46
Fertilizers................................................................................................................................48
Makhteshim Agan...................................................................................................................50
Other companies in the sector................................................................................................52
Israel in pictures .............................................................................. 53
Financial markets ....................................................................................................................53
Economic indicators................................................................................................................55
Company section ............................................................................. 61

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