【出版时间及名称】:2010年5月美国传媒行业研究报告
【作者】:NEEDHAM证券
【文件格式】:pdf
【页数】:32
【目录或简介】:
Content’s Migration to Digital Platforms
In 2009, the TV ecosystem generated approximately $140 billion of revenue and had about
$330 billion of public market capitalization. What is the Net Present Value (NPV) of the television
ecosystem in the digital age?
We believe that the biggest economic threat to the NPV of the TV ecosystem comes from
“unbundling” risk. Today, about 100 million U.S. households pay an average of $70 per month for
about 300 video channels. If premium TV content creators allow their programs to become
available individually on the Internet (a la carte), this “unbundling of content” threatens the value
of the TV ecosystem in three primary ways:
􀂾 Subscription revenue would decline by about 15-20%, according to our proprietary survey of 200
TV viewers.
􀂾 Advertising revenue would fall by about 75%, as there are about 16 minutes of advertising per
hour on TV compared with 4 minutes per hour on the web. Pricing is similar on both devices.
􀂾 Disintermediation adds costs. If content companies deliver content directly to consumers,
they must incur customer service costs, which we estimate at $50 per customer per year, or
$5 billion nationally.
We recommend that television content creators treat their primary monetization platform as the TV
because it is the engine that aggregates mass audiences, solidifies programming brands, drives
discovery of their next potential “hit,” creates a viewer base that can then be monetized
(distributed) over more fragmented platforms like the Internet, saves incremental customer service
expenses, and represents an additional revenue stream that Internet-only content creators will
never have.
We recommend that investors purchase triple-play-focused cable companies like Time Warner
Cable (TWC, Buy) because they are largely indifferent about where viewers watch content in the
home. TWC can raise the price of the modem and lower the price of the TV bundle if consumers
increasingly watch premium TV content on their computer.