2010年4月沙特农业与食品行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月沙特农业与食品行业研究报告
        【作者】：AL RAJHI Capital
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：40
        【目录或简介】：
Agriculture & Food Sector:
Pick the fruits
Rising population and better education are fuelling growth in the Saudi food
sector. Competition in dairy items is intensifying, but other areas offer new
potential for the market leader, Almarai. Stable commodity food prices and the
trend towards shopping in large retail outlets should support Savola. Almarai’s
high economic profit shows its success in absorbing acquisitions, while Savola’s
core returns are better than they seem. We rate both companies as Overweight.
Food market is promising. With a rising population and high GDP/capita, the
food sector in Saudi Arabia and the GCC region is set to grow further. Education
and new lifestyles are stimulating healthy food segments such as dairy produce.
Almarai and Savola dominate the sector, with smaller players under pressure.
Dairy and food markets: strong prospects despite challenges. Almarai is
the top dairy player in the GCC. While we expect competition here to intensify,
Almarai has greatly reduced its dependence on dairy sales. Almarai should grow
faster from now in areas like juice, bakery products and cheese. After steep falls
in 2008, prices of commodity foodstuffs look stable. We expect Savola’s sugar
and edible oils units to grow steadily; expansion in other areas is also likely. The
trend towards shopping in larger retail outlets is positive for food sales. Savola’s
retail segment should improve in 2010 as it rationalises newly acquired stores.
M&A is the chief mode of growth. Almarai has pursued growth through M&A,
notably Hadco. Almarai has maintained high economic profit, showing it has
been able to integrate new operations successfully. Debt has gone up to fund
acquisitions, but gearing is well under control. Savola’s headline returns are held
down by its business mix and the fact that a large portion of invested capital is
tied up in investments. However, we estimate that Savola achieved a core
economic profit spread of about 4% in 2009. We should also stress that Savola’s
investments, notably Almarai and Herfy, have been highly successful.
Stock conclusions. We rate Almarai as Overweight with a price target of
SAR220, implying 17.1% upside. We rate Savola as Overweight with a price
target of SAR41.1, implying 17.4% upside. The stocks have performed well and
are not obviously cheap on EV/EBITDA ratios of 12.3x and 9.6x respectively.
However, we expect high transparency and likely popularity with international
investors to drive further share price appreciation.

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 食品行业 行业研究 Acquisitions 研究报告 行业 农业 沙特