摩根大通 - 中国人寿保险行业研究 - 2010.8.12

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【名称及出版时间】： 中国人寿保险行业研究 - 2010.8.12 (China Life Insurance - 1H10 results preview: Steady earnings but with slowing NBV growth)
【来源】：JPMorgan
【文件格式】： PDF
【页数】： 12
【目录】：
Earnings likely to remain steady in 1H10: The Chinese life insurers
will kick off the reporting season on August 17, with CTIH being the
first to report. We expect the life insurers under our coverage to report a
7% YoY growth in aggregate net income. Both Ping An and CPIC are
likely to stage stronger growth of 36% and 19%, respectively, thanks to
the low base effect. Key operating trends are 1) strong premium growth
for most insurers, 2) improving underwriting performance, and 3)
weaker but still robust investment yields lifted by dividend inflows.
• Slowing NBV growth momentum: We expect the life insurers to report
weaker NBV growth of 19-34% YoY in 1H10 vs. 30-80% reported a
year as the benefits from product mix restructuring wane. We expect
CTIH/Taiping Life to see the strongest NBV growth and China Life to
report the weakest growth. Only Ping An and China Life are likely to see
an uplift in new business margin despite modest increases. EV expansion
varies across all insurers but is generally expected to be weak due to
dividend payments to shareholders and marked-to-market losses on
equity investments.
• Potential surprises: 1) We see risks of earnings disappointment should
the pullback in the A-share market in 2Q10 prove to have a bigger-thanexpected
impact on insurers’ investment performance; 2) we see risks of
China Life showing a weaker-than-expected improvement in new
business margin as sales of long-payment-duration policies slows; 3)
CTIH/Taiping Life could deliver

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