你好,欢迎来到经管之家 [登录] [注册]

设为首页 | 经管之家首页 | 收藏本站

【经济学人-原创译作-世界经济发展受挫】

发布时间: 来源:人大经济论坛
红色代表存疑,蓝色代表已修正。欢迎指点!更多敬请关注我的新浪博客(长期更新):
http://blog.sina.com.cn/u/1969126945{:soso_e121:}
【导语】:世界经济接连受到考验,美国财政悬崖和欧元区漫长危机再次刺穿世界经济动脉,使之郁郁不得生,各项数据的出炉亦时常低于预期,危机之雾霾笼罩于上,世界经济能否突出重围呢?
The world economy
世界经济
Shaken, not stirred
发展受挫
The breadth of the latest slowdown is disconcerting
最近的经济减速正在愈演愈烈
May 11th 2013 | WASHINGTON, DC |From the print edition

THE global economy seemed bound for a shaky start in 2013, with fiscal cliffs lurking in America and a chronic crisis in Europe. Yet things could have easily turned out worse. America’s politicians bungled about, but avoided disaster. Despite a messy bail-out in Cyprus, government-bond yields across the troubled euro-zone periphery are falling.The world has been mercifully free of seismic catastrophes and soaring oil prices.
美国财政悬崖隐患重重、欧债危机挥之不去,世界经济的2013年看来注定要以弱势开局。事情本可能更糟。幸好美国政客虽然搞得一团糟,却避免了灾难。而塞浦路斯救援计划虽然混乱不堪,欧元区外围经济体的ZF公债收益率却已经在下降了。世界已经侥幸脱离了地震式的大灾难和飙升的油价。
That good fortune has not prevented a broad slowdown. Global growth sank below 2.5% in the second half of 2012. A small rebound at the start of 2013 appears to have faded. First-quarter GDP reports disappointed in America and China. Unemployment in Europe ticks relentlessly upwards. And in April an important index of global economic activity sank to its lowest level since last October, suggesting that the world economy is barely managing to grow .
然而好运没能抵挡住更大范围的衰退。全球经济增长率在2012年的下半年下降到了2.5%以下。一次小规模的探底回升在2013年伊始看上去已然褪色。第一季度的GDP报告,中美均黯然失色。欧洲的失业率在不断地上升。此外,在今年4月份一个重要的全球经济景气度指标创下了自去年10月份以来的最低位,这预示着世界经济的增长步履维艰。
Europe is in the roughest shape. The euro area has been in a double-dip recession since late 2011and its downturn intensified in the final quarter of 2012, when output fell by 0.6% from its level in the third quarter. Despite some signs of revival in Germany, official figures due on May 15th are expected to show that the euro-zone recession continued in the first three months of 2013. Business surveys suggest the decline has persisted into the current quarter. An index of output in private services and manufacturing (where 50 is the dividing line between contraction and expansion) stood at 46.9 in April, reported Markit, a research firm, this week.
欧洲正处于最困难的情形。欧元区经济自2011年底以来一直处于双底衰退的情形中,并且伴随着第三季度出口额0.6%的下降幅度,它的衰退在2012年的最后一个季度可谓是雪上加霜。尽管复苏的苗头在德国出现了,但人们预期在5月15日即将公布的官方数据会显示:欧元区的衰退在2013年的头三个月仍在持续。商业调查显示当前季度衰退依旧。在这周,来自Markit(一家调查公司)的一份报告显示:一个衡量私人服务和制造业出口的指标(50是描述收缩和扩张的分界点)在4月份已经站到了46.9的低位。
The euro zone’s fragility owes something to austerity, though fiscal retrenchment will be less intense this year. Financial conditions also matter. Though improved since Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), pledged last July to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro, bank credit remains tight in southern Europe. Borrowers there will get little help from this month’s 0.25 percentage-point cut in the ECB’s main policy rate, to 0.5%. The euro zone will continue to look to export demand for salvation.
欧元区经济的脆弱性一定程度上是由于紧缩政策造成的。金融情形同样重要。尽管情况自欧洲央行行长马里奥德拉吉在去年7月份承诺“会尽一切努力挽救欧元区”后有所好转,但银行信贷在南欧依旧紧俏。欧洲央行将基准利率下降0.25个百分点至0.5%。此举对南欧的借款者来说能够提供的帮助有限。欧元区将继续翘首期盼来自出口需求的援助。
That may prove a vain hope. The days of double-digit growth in China are over: it managed growth of just 7.7% in the first quarter and new data suggest the slowdown continued into April. That will make life harder for countries like Germany, which export a lot of industrial equipment to China. Japan’s economy seems to be rebounding thanks to the stimulus provided by the policies of Shinzo Abe, the prime minister, but vigorous monetary expansion has sent the yen tumbling against the euro, making life more difficult for European exporters. America’s economy has proved surprisingly resilient in the face of budget cuts and tax hikes. But it does not seem ready to resume the role of global consumer of last resort.
事实证明那可能是徒劳的。中国经济高速增长的日子已然结束:一季度的经济增长率仅为7.7%,一项新的数据显示4月份的减速仍在持续。而那将会使德国之类依靠向中国出口工业设备的国家生存更加艰难。日本经济看上去有所起色,而这要归功于其首相安倍晋三出台的经济刺激政策,但是由此带来的通过膨胀已经使日元兑欧元汇率大跌,而这进一步造就了欧洲出口商生存的举步维艰。美国经济在面对预算削减和税收高企的情形下,表现得很有韧性,令人惊奇。但是它似乎还没有准备好履行上一次救助的全球消费者的角色。
Even though economic troubles look relatively modest outside the euro area, the breadth of the slowdown is disconcerting. With so many parts of the world economy performing below expectations, it is hard to see where an engine of global demand might emerge and easy to imagine how things could go wrong.
即使欧元区外围经济困顿看上去相对缓和,经济减速依旧令人仓皇失措。伴随着如此之多的低于预期的经济体的表现,很难知道全球需求的引擎会在何地出现,反之却能容易地想象到形势会恶化到何种程度。
Still, the slowdown may not turn into a stall. America’s economy is likely to accelerate in the second half of the year as the pressure of austerity recedes. Euro-zone leaders seem prepared to give the periphery more time to meet fiscal goals. And the ECB’s return to a more expansionary policy may take a little pressure off the struggling economies. There are signs of improvement in Britain and parts of Latin America as well. The IMF’s latest forecast revised down projections of global growth this year, but nonetheless predicted a better performance than in 2012.
但是,减速可能不会陷入深不见底的泥潭。美国经济在面临紧缩放松的情形下,很可能会在下半年加速。欧元区的领导者似乎已经准备好给予边缘国家更多时间实现财政目标。而且欧洲央行回归到更加扩张的政策可能会让处于挣扎中的经济有所减压。英国和部分拉丁美洲国家同样有此好转迹象。国际货币基金组织最近的一次预测下调了今年全球经济增长的预期,尽管如此,预测的表现还是比2012年的要好。
From the print edition: Finance and economics
原文链接:http://www.economist.com/news/fi ... -shaken-not-stirred

译者:观世鹰

【独家发布】【经济学人赏析版免费下载——最近更新至2013年4月份!】

https://bbs.pinggu.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=2248072&fromuid=2764498



经管之家“学道会”小程序
  • 扫码加入“考研学习笔记群”
推荐阅读
经济学相关文章
标签云
经管之家精彩文章推荐