能源经济学研讨会（第30期）

【演讲者】Jeffrey C. Begun, Ph.D.

【题目】In search of an environmental Kuznets curve in sulphurdioxide concentrations: a Bayesian model averaging approach

【地点】中国人民大学明德主楼729会议室

【时间】2013年9月16日，星期一， 11:30—13:00

【内容简介】The exact specification and motivation for anenvironmental Kuznets curve (EKC) is the subject of a vast literature in environmentaleconomics. A remarkably diverse set of econometric approaches and candidateregressors have been proposed, which highlights the degree of model uncertaintysurrounding the relationship between environmental quality and pollution. Weintroduce Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to the EKC analysis to examine: (a)whether a sulphur dioxide EKC exists, and if so (b) which income/pollutionspecification is supported by the data. BMA addresses model uncertainty as partof the empirical strategy by incorporating the uncertainty about the validityof competing theories into the posterior distribution. We find only weak supportfor an EKC, which disappears altogether when we address issues relating to theextreme oversampling of two industrialized countries in the sample. Incontrast, our results highlight the relative importance of political economyand site-specific variables (specifically executive constraints andprecipitation variation) in explaining pollution outcomes. Trade is shown toplay an important indirect role, as it moderates the influence of thecomposition effect on pollution.

【演讲者简介】Jeffrey C. Begun, Ph.D. is currently a full-timelecturer in University of Washington, Tacoma. His doctoral dissertation is titledA Bayesian Analysis of Model Uncertaintyand Development. His research interests are focused on environmental economics,international Economics, economic growth and development. The paper he willdiscuss in the seminar has been published on Environment and Development Economics. The projects he is workingon include “Different Growth for Different Folks? Reexamining East Asian GrowthDeterminants through Iterative Bayesian Model Averaging (IBMA)”, and “InitialConditions and Heterogeneity in Cross-Country Growth: An Iterative BayesianModel Averaging (IBMA) Analysis”. He serves as editorial board member forInternational Journal of Sustainable Economy, PPE Paper Prize committee chairand so on.

能源经济研讨会（EnergyEconomics Seminar）由中国人民大学经济学院能源经济系定期推出，旨在为研究中国能源经济问题的学者提供一个交流的平台，以促进我国能源经济的教学研究水平的提高。

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主办：中国人民大学经济学院能源经济系