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[原创]读经济学人12月12日的封面文章有感。

发布时间: 来源:人大经济论坛

题目是China and India suddenly vulnerable 原文可在论坛中下载

文章大意是说中印经济都会产生严重的问题,突然很脆弱。从经济上讲,中国要好点,毕竟有外汇储备,财政状况也良好。印度就很麻烦,经济明年可能要到5.5%。中国他们预测乐观可能7.5%。

但文章的结论却是Asia’s two big beasts are shivering. India’s economy is weaker, but China’s leaders have more
to fear。

为什么呢?就是印度的民主化使得它可以承受住低增长,而中国会因为低增长产生很大的社会问题。

我想也是,作为80后,从我有记忆的那天起,中国经济增长就没低过8%(好像就98年一年),一片繁荣,但是大家有没有想过如果经济增长真的低于8%,而且不是一两年低于8%会发生什么?

文章说:In two respects, however, India has a big advantage over China in coping with an economic slowdown. It
has all-too extensive experience in it; and it has a political system that can cope with disgruntlement
without suffering existential doubts. India pays an economic price for its democracy. Decision-making is
cumbersome. And as in China, unrest and even insurgency are widespread. But the political system has a
resilience and flexibility that China’s own leaders, it seems, believe they lack. They are worrying about
how to cope with protests.

我想如果我们的国家的稳定只能建立在8%的增长上,那我们是不是太脆弱了?(98年的事我是有印象的,我们家乡发生了上万国有棉纺织工人以堵陇海铁路的方式进行抗议,导致这条国家动脉停运十几小时)

大家真的有没有想过如果我国经济常年低于8%了会怎样?你会怀疑中国特色的社会主义的正确性吗?文章的结尾是这样的,值得我们大家思考:

But as China enters a trying year of anniversaries—the 50th of the suppression of an uprising in Tibet;
the 20th of the quashing of the Tiananmen Square protests; the 60th of the founding of the People’s
Republic itself—it may be worth remembering that the winter of 1978-79 saw not only a party Central
Committee plenum but also the “Democracy Wall” movement in Beijing. It was a brief flowering of thefreedom of expression, quite remarkable after the xenophobic isolation of the Cultural Revolution. Deng,
like Mao Zedong before him, tolerated the dissident movement as long as it served his ends, and then
stamped it out. In so doing he thwarted what Wei Jingsheng, the most famous of the wall-writers, had
dubbed “the fifth modernisation”: democracy. China still needs it.

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