为世界经济讲故事的时间到了
Story Time for the World Economyby Robert J. ShillerNEW HAVEN - Since hitting bottom in early March, the world’s major stock markets have all risen dramatically. Some, notably in China and Brazil, reached lows last fall and again in March, before rebounding sharply, with Brazil’s Bovespa up 75% in May compared to late October 2008, and the Shanghai Composite up 54% in roughly the same period. But the stock market news just about everywhere has been very good since March.
Does this suggest that the world economic crisis is coming to an end? Could it be that everyone becomes optimistic again at the same time, bringing a quick end to all our problems?
Speculative booms are driven by psychological feedback. Rising stock prices generate stories of smart investors getting rich. People become envious of others’ successes, and begin to wonder if rising prices don’t portend further increases. A temptation arises to get into the market, even among people who are fundamentally doubtful that the boom will continue. So rising prices feed back into more rising prices, and the cycle repeats again and again – for a while.
During a boom, people considering getting into asset markets weigh the fear of regret if they don’t against the pain of possible loss if they do. There is no authoritative answer about what the “right” decision is, and no consensus among experts about the proper level of exposure to these markets. Should it be 30% in stocks and 70% in housing? Or the reverse? Who knows? So the ultimate human decision must be based on the relative salience of these discordant emotional factors. In a boom environment, the emotional factors are biased toward getting into the market.
But one must ask what would sustain such a movement now. There seems to be no dramatic fundamental news since March other than the price increases themselves. The human tendency to react to price increases is always there waiting to generate booms and bubbles. The feedback is only an amplification mechanism for other factors that predispose people to want to get into the markets.
The whole world can’t recover all of the enthusiasm of a few years ago from feedback alone, for there is a giant coordination problem: we are not all attentive to price increases at the same time, so we make decisions to buy at very different times. As a result, things happen slowly, and, meanwhile, more bad news may be revealed.
The only way world confidence can return dramatically is if our thinking coordinates around some inspiring story beyond that of the price increases themselves.
In my 2009 book with George Akerlof, Animal Spirits , we describe the ups and downs of a macroeconomy as being substantially driven by stories . Such narratives, especially those fueled by accessible human-interest stories, are the thought viruses whose contagion drives the economy. The contagion rate of stories depends on their relation to feedback, but plausible stories have to be there in the first place. The narratives have substantial persistence in that they affect our views.
The story that drove the worldwide stock-market bubble that peaked in 2000 was complex, but, put crudely, it was that bright, aggressive people were leading the way to a new era of capitalist glory in a rapidly globalizing economy. Such people became new entrepreneurs and world travelers on the way to prosperity. This narrative seemed plausible to casual observers, because it was tied to millions of little human-interest stories about the obvious successes of those – friends, neighbors, and family members – who had the vision to participate enthusiastically in the new environment.
But it is hard today to re-create such a narrative, given so many stories of trouble. The stock markets’ rebound since March seems not to be built around any inspirational story, but rather the mere absence of more really bad news and the knowledge that all previous recessions have come to an end. At a time when the newspapers are filled with pictures of foreclosure sales – and even of surplus homes being demolished – it is hard to see any cause for the markets’ rebound other than this “all recessions come to an end sooner or later” story.
Indeed, the “capitalists triumphant” story is tarnished, as is our faith in international trade. So, here is the problem: there isn’t a plausible driver of a dramatic recovery.
Starting an economic recovery is like launching a new movie: nobody knows how people will react to it until people actually get to see it and talk about it among themselves. The new movie Star Trek , based on yet another remake of a television show from more than 40 years ago, surprised everyone by raking in $76.5 million on its first weekend.
That old story just got some excitement back with this new movie. Similarly, we have to hope that some of the same old stories that propelled us in the past – the rise of capitalism and its internationalization throughout the world economy – can somehow be dusted off and revived yet again to invigorate the animal spirits that drive economic recovery. Our efforts to stimulate the economy should be focused on improving the script for those stories, making these stories believable again.
This means making capitalism work better, and making it clear that there is no threat of protectionism. But the rationale must be to get the world economy out of its current risky situation, not to propel us into yet another speculative bubble.
为世界经济讲故事的时间到了http://www.project-syndicate.org/author_photo/9/d/7/876.png
纽黑文-全球主要股票市场在今年三月初见底以来,都涨幅巨大。有些股票市场,特别是中国和巴西的股票市场,在大幅反弹之前——巴西Bovespa股指与2008年10月底相比上涨了75%,上证综指在同期大约上涨了54%——在去年秋天和今年三月份两次达到了低点。然而,今年三月份以来,有关世界各地股票市场的消息,都是好消息。
股市的上涨意味着世界经济危机即将结束吗?这有可能是因为所有的人再次同时变得乐观起来,从而使我们面临的所有问题都快速结束了吗?
人类的心理反应推动了投机性繁荣。股票市场的上涨,会制造出聪明的投资者在股票市场上发财的故事。人们开始嫉妒其他人的成功,并认为股票价格的上涨有可能预示着进一步的上涨。因此,进入股票市场对人们的吸引了增加了,这即使对那些从根本上怀疑股票市场的繁荣能否持续下去的人,也是如此。所以,人们对股票价格上涨的反应反过来又会引起股票价格的进一步上涨,而且这个周期在一段时间里反复发生。
在繁荣时期,考虑进入资产市场的人们,会在不进入资产市场带来的遗憾和进入资产市场可能遭受的损失造成的痛苦之间,进行权衡。世界对什么是这个问题的“正确”决定,没有权威的答案,而且在专家中,也没有对参与这些市场到什么程度是恰当的的共识。人们应该将资产的30%投资于股票,70%投资于房产呢?还是将70%投资于股票,30%投资于房产?谁知道呢?所以,人们最终的投资决定,一定是建立在这些不一致的情感因素的相对重要性之上的。在股市繁荣的情况下,人们的情感因素偏向于进入股市。
但是,人们现在必须反问,有什么东西可以支持股票市场的这种趋势。今年三月份以来,除了股票价格上涨本身之外,似乎没有什么重要的基本面消息。人类对价格上涨的反应总是等待制造繁荣和泡沫,而这种反应只是使人们想进入股票市场的其他因素的一个放大机制而已。
世界不可能仅仅通过人们的反应,就使几年前所有的激情得到恢复,因为这里有一个巨大的协同问题:现在不是所有的人都在同时关注股票价格的上涨,所以,人们会在不同的时间作出购买股票的决定。因此,事情的发展就很缓慢,同时,更多的坏消息也可能会被披露出来。
世界各国对经济的信心快速恢复的唯一途径是,我们的想法围绕着除了价格上涨这个故事本身之外的某个鼓舞人心的故事,协调一致。
在2009年出版的《动物精神》(Animal Spirits)一书中——这本书是由我和乔治·阿克尔洛夫(George Akerlof)共同创作完成的,我们认为,宏观经济的起落实质上是由 故事 推动的。这样的故事,特别是由那些具有感染力的故事加以佐证的故事,是思想病毒,这些思想病毒的传播推动了经济的发展;而且,故事的传染率取决于它们与人们对其反应的关系,然而,不管怎么说,世界上首先要有这样貌似合理的故事的存在。因为这些故事会影响我们的观点,所有它们具有很强的持续性。
致使全球股票市场泡沫在2000年达到顶点的故事,是很复杂的,但是,大体说来,这个故事就是,聪明进取的人在经济快速全球化的过程中,引领通往资本主义壮丽新时代的道路的故事。这些聪明进取的人在通往繁荣的道路上,成为新型企业家和世界旅行者。这种故事对一般人来说貌似是真实的,因为它和几百万有关朋友、邻居和家庭成员——这些人具有在新环境中热情参与的远见——取得了明显的成功的富有感染力的小故事,连在了一起。
但是,鉴于现在有许多有关经济存在问题的故事,所以人们很难再创造出像以前那样的故事了。今年三月份以来股票市场的反弹,似乎不是围绕什么鼓舞人心的故事展开的,而仅仅是因为市场上没有更多真正的坏消息,以及人们认为以前的衰退都结束了而已。当报纸上满是销售抵押物抵债的照片——甚至是过剩的房屋被毁掉的照片的时候,除了“所有的衰退迟早都会结束”这样的故事之外,很难发现股票市场有任何反弹的理由。
事实上,“资本家胜利了”的故事已经黯淡无光了,我们对国际贸易的信心也是如此。所以,现在的问题是:没有一个让经济快速复苏的貌似合理的驱动器。
经济开始复苏就像开拍一部新电影:在真正去看电影并互相谈论它之前,没有人知道人们会对它做出什么样的反应。根据翻拍于40多年前的一部电视剧的电影再次翻拍的《星际迷航》,在上映的第一个星期就取得了7650万的票房成绩,令所有的人感到吃惊。
由于这部新电影的产生,《星际迷航》这个老故事又让人们感到激动。同样,我们应该希望,人们能够在某种程度上拂去那些过去激励过我们的老故事——资本主义的崛起和资本主义在世界经济中的国际化——上的尘埃,并让它们再次复活,以鼓舞驱动经济复苏的动物精神。因而,我们现在刺激经济的努力应该集中在改进这样的故事的创造、以使它们再次变得可信上。
这意味着,我们要让资本主义更好地运行,让它更加透明从而免于保护主义的威胁。然而,现在我们最基本的工作,是使世界经济摆脱当前这种危险的境地,而不是将我们推进另一个投机泡沫。