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2009世界经济概览。WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

发布时间: 来源:人大经济论坛
Assumptions and Conventionsix
Prefacexi
Joint Foreword to World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report xii
Executive Summaryxv
Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies 1
How Did Things Get So Bad, So Fast?2
Short-Term Prospects Are Precarious9
Medium-Term Prospects beyond the Crisis27
Policies to End the Crisis while Paving the Way to Sustained Recovery32
Appendix 1.1. Commodity Market Developments and Prospects44
Appendix 1.2. Fan Chart for Global Growth55
Appendix 1.3. Assumptions behind the Downside Scenario58
References60
Chapter 2. Country and Regional Perspectives63
The United States Is Grappling with the Financial Core of the Crisis63
Asia Is Struggling to Rebalance Growth from External to Domestic Sources71
Europe Is Searching for a Coherent Policy Response75
The CIS Economies Are Suffering a Triple Blow84
Other Advanced Economies Are Dealing with Adverse Terms-of-Trade Shocks86
Latin America and the Caribbean Face Growing Pressures87
Middle Eastern Economies Are Buffering Global Shocks91
Hard-Won Economic Gains in Africa Are Being Threatened93
References95
Chapter 3. From Recession to Recovery: How Soon and How Strong?97
Business Cycles in the Advanced Economies98
Does the Cause of a Downturn Affect the Shape of the Cycle?106
Can Policies Play a Useful Countercyclical Role?113
Lessons for the Current Recession and Prospects for Recovery123
Appendix 3.1. Data Sources and Methodologies126
References130
Chapter 4. How Linkages Fuel the Fire: The Transmission of Financial Stress
from Advanced to Emerging Economies 133
Measuring Financial Stress 136
Links between Advanced and Emerging Economies 141
The Transmission of Financial Stress: An Overall Analysis 147
Lessons from Previous Advanced Economy Banking Crises 155
Implications for the Current Crisis 157
Which Policies Can Help? 159
Appendix 4.1. A Financial Stress Index for Emerging Economies 160
Appendix 4.2. Financial Stress in Emerging Economies: Econometric Analysis 162
References166
Annex: IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, April 2009 171
Statistical Appendix175
Assumptions175
What’s New180
Data and Conventions 180
Classification of Countries 182
General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic
Outlook Classification 184
List of Tables
Output (Tables A1–A4)189
Inflation (Tables A5–A7)197
Financial Policies (Table A8)203
Foreign Trade (Table A9)204
Current Account Transactions (Tables A10–A12)206
Balance of Payments and External Financing (Tables A13–A15)212
Flow of Funds (Table A16)216
Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Table A17)220
World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics221
Boxes
1.1 Global Business Cycles11
1.2 How Vulnerable Are Nonfinancial Firms?20
1.3 Assessing Defl ation Risks in the G3 Economies24
1.4 Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis34
1.5 Will Commodity Prices Rise Again when the Global Economy Recovers?47
2.1 The Case of Vanishing Household Wealth66
2.2 Vulnerabilities in Emerging Economies79
3.1 How Similar Is the Current Crisis to the Great Depression?99
3.2 Is Credit a Vital Ingredient for Recovery? Evidence from Industry-Level Data115
4.1 Impact of Foreign Bank Ownership during Home-Grown Crises158
A1. Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Economies 176
Tables
1.1 Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections 10
1.2 Comparison of Commodity Price Volatility46
1.3 Global Oil Demand and Production by Region53
1.4 Underlying World Merchandise Trade Flows59
1.5 Factors Explaining the Additional Decline in Output Growth for 2009–1059
2.1 Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment65
2.2 Selected Asian Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance 73
2.3 Advanced Economies: Current Account Positions74
2.4 Selected Emerging European Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and
Current Account Balance78
2.5 Selected Commonwealth of Independent States Economies: Real GDP,
Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance86
2.6 Selected Western Hemisphere Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and
Current Account Balance90
2.7 Selected Middle Eastern Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and
Current Account Balance92
2.8 Selected African Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance 94
3.1 Business Cycles in the Industrial Countries: Summary Statistics105
3.2 Financial Crises and Associated Recessions107
3.3 Impact of Policies on the Probability of Exiting a Recession123
3.4 Impact of Policies on the Strength of Recoveries124
3.5 Results from Categorizing Recessions128
3.6 Financial Crises and Deregulation in the Mortgage Market129
3.7 Impact of Policies on the Strength of Recoveries Using an Alternative Measure of
Fiscal Policy130
4.1 Episodes of Widespread Financial Stress in Advanced Economies138
4.2 The Role of Linkages as Determinants of Comovement152
4.3 Emerging Economy Stress: Country-Specific Effects153
4.4 Emerging Economy Stress: Determinants of Common Time Trend163
4.5 Emerging Economy Stress: Country-Specific Effects and Interactions with Stress
in Advanced Economies166
Figures
1.1 Global Indicators1
1.2 Developments in Mature Credit Markets2
1.3 Emerging Market Conditions3
1.4 Current and Forward-Looking Indicators4
1.5 Global Inflation5
1.6 External Developments6
1.7 Measures of Monetary Policy and Liquidity in Selected Advanced Economies7
1.8 Global Outlook15
1.9 Potential Growth and the Output Gap16
1.10 Risks to World GDP Growth17
1.11 Housing Developments18
1.12 Downside Scenario27
1.13 Net Capital Flows to Emerging and Developing Economies29
1.14 General Government Fiscal Balances and Public Debt30
1.15 Global Saving, Investment, and Current Accounts31
1.16 Alternative Medium-Term Scenarios33
1.17 Commodity and Petroleum Prices45
1.18 World Oil Market Developments52
1.19 Developments in Metal and Energy Markets54
1.20 Recent Developments in Markets for Major Food Crops55
1.21 Dispersion of Forecasts and Selected Risk Factors58
1.22 Balance of Risks Associated with Selected Risk Factors60
2.1 United States: The Center of the Crisis64
2.2 Advanced and Emerging Asia: Suffering from the Collapse of Global Trade72
2.3 Europe: Developing a Common Response76
2.4 Europe: Subdued Medium-Run Growth Prospects77
2.5 Commonwealth of Independent States: Struggling with Capital Outflows85
2.6 Canada, Australia, and New Zealand: Dealing with Terms-of-Trade Shocks88
2.7 Latin America: Pressures Are Growing89
2.8 Middle East: Coping with Lower Oil Prices91
2.9 Africa: Hard-Won Gains at Risk93
3.1 Business Cycle Peaks and Troughs104
3.2 Business Cycles Have Moderated over Time104
3.3 Temporal Evolution of Recessions by Shock107
3.4 Average Statistics for Recessions and Recoveries108
3.5 Expansions in the Run-Up to Recessions Associated with Financial Crises and
Other Shocks109
3.6 House Price-to-Rental Ratios for Recessions Associated with Financial Crises and
Other Shocks110
3.7 Household Saving Rate and Net Lending before and after Business Cycle Peaks 111
3.8 Recessions and Recoveries Associated with Financial Crises and Other Shocks112
3.9 Highly Synchronized Recessions113
3.10 Are Highly Synchronized Recessions Different?114
3.11 Average Policy Response during a Recession119
3.12 Impact of Policies during Financial Crisis Episodes120
3.13 Effect of Policy Variables on the Strength of Recovery121
3.14 Relationship between the Impact of Fiscal Policy on the Strength of Recovery and
Debt-to-GDP Ratio122
3.15 Economic Indicators around Peaks of Current and Previous Recessions125
4.1 Indicators of Financial Stress in Emerging Economies134
4.2 Capital Flows to Emerging Economies135
4.3 Sudden Stops and Activity136
4.4 Financial Stress in Advanced Economies137
4.5 Financial Stress Indices in Emerging Economies141
4.6 Financial Stress in Emerging and Advanced Economies 142
4.7 The Transmission of Stress: Schematic Depiction of Effects143
4.8 Financial Integration of Emerging and Developing Economies144
4.9 Financial Exposures of Emerging to Advanced Economies146
4.10 Financial Linkages between Advanced and Emerging Economies147
4.11 Vulnerability Indicators by Region, 1990–2007148
4.12 Comovement in Financial Stress between Emerging and Advanced Economies150
4.13 Explaining Financial Stress in Emerging Economies154
4.14 Impact of the Latin American Debt Crisis on Banking Liabilities156
4.15 Impact of the Japanese Banking Crisis on Bank Lending157
4.16 Exposure to Bank-Lending Liabilities and Twin Deficits in Emerging
Economies, 2002–06159
4.17 Emerging Economy Stress: Common Time Component and Stress
in Advanced Economies162
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