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Table Of Contents
Executive summary ........................................................................ 4 Tough choices ahead.......................................................................................................... 4 Commodities: searching for sustained growth .................................................................. 6 Ratings and Price Target revisions ..................................................................................... 7 Material earnings and PT revision rationale ....................................................................... 9 Price performance returns analysis .................................................................................. 13 Goodwill write-downs risk ............................................................ 15 Earnings revision summary .......................................................... 18 4Q12 earnings and calendar ........................................................ 20 Price performance ........................................................................ 22 DB NA Metals & Mining price performance .................................................................... 22 Commodity price performance ........................................................................................ 23 DB forecasts versus spot forward curves ........................................................................ 24 4Q12 earnings results ................................................................... 25 4Q12 earnings previews ............................................................... 26 Industrial Metals ............................................................................................................... 26 Precious Metals ................................................................................................................ 31 Financial Models and Rtn data ..................................................... 38 Alcoa ................................................................................................................................. 38 Barrick Gold ...................................................................................................................... 40 Coeur d’Alene Mines ........................................................................................................ 42 Cliffs .................................................................................................................................. 44 Freeport-McMoRan .......................................................................................................... 46 Goldcorp ........................................................................................................................... 48 Hecla Mining .................................................................................................................... 50 Kinross Gold...................................................................................................................... 52 Newmont Mining .............................................................................................................. 54 Pan American Silver ......................................................................................................... 56 Southern Copper .............................................................................................................. 58 Silver Standard ................................................................................................................. 60 Teck Resources ................................................................................................................. 62 Thompson Creek .............................................................................................................. 64 Vale ................................................................................................................................... 66 Investment thesis ......................................................................... 68 Recent publications ...................................................................... 73 Commodity outlook ...................................................................... 85 Global Macro .................................................................................................................... 85 Industrial Metals ............................................................................................................... 89 Copper .............................................................................................................................. 93 Aluminum ......................................................................................................................... 96 Nickel ................................................................................................................................ 98 Zinc ................................................................................................................................. 101 Iron ore ........................................................................................................................... 104 Coking Coal .................................................................................................................... 106 Precious Metals .............................................................................................................. 109 DB commodity and macro forecasts .......................................... 113 瑞士信贷：2013年1月中国大宗商品研究报告（免费） https://bbs.pinggu.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=2175966&from^^uid=143965 高盛：2013年中国反腐败专题研究报告（免费） https://bbs.pinggu.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=2175970&from^^uid=143965 高盛：2013年全球大宗商品价格预测报告（免费） https://bbs.pinggu.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=2175972&from^^uid=143965 |
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