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Table Of Contents
Executive summary ........................................................................ 4
Tough choices ahead.......................................................................................................... 4
Commodities: searching for sustained growth .................................................................. 6
Ratings and Price Target revisions ..................................................................................... 7
Material earnings and PT revision rationale ....................................................................... 9
Price performance returns analysis .................................................................................. 13
Goodwill write-downs risk ............................................................ 15
Earnings revision summary .......................................................... 18
4Q12 earnings and calendar ........................................................ 20
Price performance ........................................................................ 22
DB NA Metals & Mining price performance .................................................................... 22
Commodity price performance ........................................................................................ 23
DB forecasts versus spot forward curves ........................................................................ 24
4Q12 earnings results ................................................................... 25
4Q12 earnings previews ............................................................... 26
Industrial Metals ............................................................................................................... 26
Precious Metals ................................................................................................................ 31
Financial Models and Rtn data ..................................................... 38
Alcoa ................................................................................................................................. 38
Barrick Gold ...................................................................................................................... 40
Coeur d’Alene Mines ........................................................................................................ 42
Cliffs .................................................................................................................................. 44
Freeport-McMoRan .......................................................................................................... 46
Goldcorp ........................................................................................................................... 48
Hecla Mining .................................................................................................................... 50
Kinross Gold...................................................................................................................... 52
Newmont Mining .............................................................................................................. 54
Pan American Silver ......................................................................................................... 56
Southern Copper .............................................................................................................. 58
Silver Standard ................................................................................................................. 60
Teck Resources ................................................................................................................. 62
Thompson Creek .............................................................................................................. 64
Vale ................................................................................................................................... 66
Investment thesis ......................................................................... 68
Recent publications ...................................................................... 73
Commodity outlook ...................................................................... 85
Global Macro .................................................................................................................... 85
Industrial Metals ............................................................................................................... 89
Copper .............................................................................................................................. 93
Aluminum ......................................................................................................................... 96
Nickel ................................................................................................................................ 98
Zinc ................................................................................................................................. 101
Iron ore ........................................................................................................................... 104
Coking Coal .................................................................................................................... 106
Precious Metals .............................................................................................................. 109
DB commodity and macro forecasts .......................................... 113

2013outlook：killingthegoldengoose：toughchoicesahead（201301140002GH01AE）.pdf (2.44 MB)

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