<p><br/></p><p>Transition----The First Ten Years<br/>Analysis and Lessons for Eastern Europe<br/>and the Former Soviet Union</p><p><br/>2002 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank</p><p>pdf 可复制&nbsp;&nbsp;161页，676k</p><p>Foreword...............................ix<br/>Acknowledgments........................xi<br/>Overview .............................xiii<br/>The Quest for Growth: Promoting Discipline and Encouragement ................ xv<br/>The Flipside: Protection and Discouragement .................. xvii<br/>Shading the Classification ............................. xvii<br/>New Enterprises Spur Economic Growth...................... xviii<br/>When Is Transition Over? ........................ xix<br/>Do Central Europe and the Baltics Point the Way Forward? ............. xix<br/>Can We Have It Both Ways: Encouragement without Discipline? ..............xx<br/>Learning from China?....................... xxi<br/>Institutions Are Important, but So Are Policies ...................xxi<br/>The Political Economy of Discipline and Encouragement ............. xxii<br/>Shifting Policy Priorities to Account for Experience and New Conditions .... xxiv<br/>Conclusions .............xxviii<br/>Annex 1. Discipline and Encouragement: The Reform Agenda ....... xxix<br/>Part 1. The First Decade in Transition ................ 1<br/>1. How Did Transition Economies Perform?...........3<br/>Output Fell Sharply ..............................3<br/>Industry Shrank—Services Grew..................5<br/>Private Enterprises Overtook the State Sector ..............6<br/>Exports Rose—Moving Toward Industrial Countries .........6<br/>Poverty Increased Sharply ....................6<br/>1<br/>Contents<br/>Contents<br/>vi<br/>2. Explaining Variation in Output Performance .......11<br/>Did Initial Conditions Affect Performance? .........11<br/>External Economic Shocks Delayed Recovery............13<br/>Policies—Do They Matter? ..........................13<br/>What Initial Conditions Matter and When Do They Matter? ......15<br/>What If Policies Themselves Are Endogenous? .................16<br/>Does the Speed of Reform Matter? ...........................16<br/>Annex 2.1. Summary of Cross-Country Empirical Literature on Growth in<br/>Transition Economies ...............................16<br/>Annex 2.2. Additional Empirical Analysis ..............19<br/>Part 2. Policy and Institutional Challenges Ahead ...........21<br/>3. The Quest for Growth .............23<br/>A Tale of Two Approaches ................26<br/>The Associated Fiscal Adjustment… ........29<br/>…And the Role of Labor Markets ..............30<br/>4. Discipline and Encouragement ...........33<br/>New Enterprises Drive the Transition ...............39<br/>A Small Number of High-Productivity Small Enterprises Is Not Enough ......41<br/>Can We Have It Both Ways, That Is, Protecting Old Inherited Enterprises and<br/>Encouraging New Enterprises? .................45<br/>Annex 4.1. Assumptions for Small and New Enterprises ...............48<br/>Annex 4.2. Implications of the Higher Productivity of SMEs ............50<br/>5. Imposing Discipline......................53<br/>Soft Budget Constraints Can Create Macroeconomic Crises .............53<br/>Nonpayments Weaken the Incentives for Efficiency and Restructuring .......54<br/>Exit Mechanisms—Implement Now, Revise Later ...................56<br/>Competition Is Linked to Innovation and Growth ..................56<br/>6. Extending Encouragement .....................59<br/>Corruption and Anticompetitive Practices Mar the Investment Climate ......59<br/>Enterprises Lack Confidence in Legal and Judicial Institutions ............61<br/>Financial Deepening Is Slow but Progressing ....................62<br/>Privatization Attracts Foreign Direct Investment, and Positive Spillovers Follow ......67<br/>Tax Reform: Broadening the Base and Lowering Rates............67<br/>Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations Supporting Discipline and Encouragement ....68<br/>7. Privatization: Lessons and Agenda for the Future ..............71<br/>Traditional Privatization or Rapid Privatization?............73<br/>Why Countries Did What They Did ......................73<br/>Were Vouchers a Mistake and Other “What Ifs” ..............78<br/>Summarizing Lessons .............................79<br/>8. Supportive Social Policies ............81<br/>Reforming Pension Systems ................81<br/>Contents<br/>vii<br/>Social Assistance Should Protect Children and the Most Destitute, Adding More<br/>as Budgets Allow ...............83<br/>Severe Cuts Have Compromised the Quality of Education ...........84<br/>Containing Costs Will Make Health Care Affordable for Those Who Need It Most ......86<br/>Part 3. The Political Economy of Discipline and Encouragement.........89<br/>9. The Winners and Losers from Discipline and Encouragement ........91<br/>Who Wins and Who Loses? .............92<br/>The Government Must Be Credible and Able to Constrain Oligarchs and Insiders .........94<br/>10. Classifying Political Systems in Transition ............97<br/>Competitive Democracies Have High Political Contestability… ..........99<br/>…and High Government Turnover .........101<br/>11. Political Systems Influence the Choice of Economic Reforms .......103<br/>Political Systems Create Rent-Seeking Opportunities .............105<br/>How Do Political Systems Affect Economic Reform? .............107<br/>12. Confronting the Political Challenge ................111<br/>For Concentrated Political Regimes, Mobilizing Potential Winners ........112<br/>For War-Torn Political Systems, Restoring Stability and Reducing Uncertainty......114<br/>For Noncompetitive Political Systems, Taking Advantage of State Capacity .......115<br/>For Competitive Democracies, Using Momentum to Build Coalitions for Reform ........115<br/>Conclusion...............116<br/>Selected Bibliographic Guide to the Political Economy of Transition .........117<br/>References......125<br/>Boxes<br/>1 Increased Inequality ....... xiv<br/>1.1 Limits of GDP Statistics for Transition Economies ........8<br/>2.1 The Regional Impact of the Global Financial Crisis and Recovery .....13<br/>3.1 The Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey..........24<br/>3.2 The Problem of nneling...............27<br/>4.1 Can the CIS Learn from China’s Reform Experience? ........35<br/>4.2 The German Experience ...........37<br/>4.3Belarus.........46<br/>5.1 External Debt and Fiscal Sustainability in the Low-Income CIS Countries ......55<br/>6.1 Reducing the Cost of Entry and Doing Business in Armenia ............60<br/>7.1 Historical Counterfactuals: Mass Privatization in Russia ........76<br/>Figures<br/>1 Winners and Losers from Reform ............. xxii<br/>1.1 Changes in Real Output, 1990–2001.................4<br/>1.2 Output Growth Rates, 1990-2001........4<br/>2.1 Progress in Policy Reform, 1990s ......14<br/>Contents<br/>viii<br/>3.1 Productivity Distribution of Old, Restructured, and New Enterprises ...........24<br/>3.2 Performance of Old and New Enterprises, 1996–99......................26<br/>4.1 Private Sector Share in GDP, 1999 ............40<br/>4.2 Share of Employment in Small Enterprises, 1989–98 ...........41<br/>4.3 Share of Value Added in Small Enterprises, 1989–98 ..........41<br/>4.4 Value Added per Employee in Small Enterprises, 1998..........42<br/>4.5 Index of GDP and Shares of Value Added and Employment Accounted for by<br/>Small Enterprises, 1989–98 ..........43<br/>4.6 Employment and GDP, 1990–98.......44<br/>4.7 Soft Budget Constraints and Employment in Small Enterprises, 2000 ........48<br/>A4.1 Factor Price Frontier: SMEs and the Rest of the Economy ..........50<br/>A4.2 Efficiency Gain from 10 Percent Factor Reallocation to the SME Sector ........51<br/>6.1 Insecurity of Property Rights in Transition Economies, 1999 .........61<br/>6.2 Quality of Legal Drafting in Transition Economies, 1999 ...........62<br/>6.3 Quality of Judiciary in Transition Economies ............63<br/>6.4 Domestic Credit by Deposit Money Banks to the Private Sector, 1998 ......64<br/>6.5 Stock Market Capitalization and Per Capita Income, 1998..........65<br/>6.6 Operating Costs to Total Assets in the Banking Sector, 1997 ............65<br/>6.7 Interest Rate Spreads,1998.......66<br/>6.8 Cumulative Foreign Direct Investment Per Capita and Employment in Small<br/>Enterprises, 1998 ..........68<br/>8.1 Public Expenditures on Education in Transition Economies, 1998 ......85<br/>8.2 Health Expenditures, 1998 ..............86<br/>9.1 Winners and Losers from Reform..............93<br/>10.1 Classifying Political Systems in Transition Economies, 1990–99 ....98<br/>10.2 Veto Points Index, 1989–99..................100<br/>10.3 Main Political Executive Turnovers, 1989–99 .......102<br/>11.1 Political Systems and Economic Reform Outcomes, 2000 ....104<br/>11.2 State Capture Index, 1999.....................................106<br/>Tables<br/>1.1 The Transition Recession...........5<br/>1.2 Composition of Output, 1990–91 and 1997–98 ........6<br/>1.3 Private Sector Growth,1990s..........6<br/>1.4 Export Growth and Destination, 1990s ............7<br/>1.5 Main Recipients of Foreign Direct Investment, 1992–99........7<br/>1.6 Average Poverty Rates, 1990 and 1998 ...............8<br/>1.7 Changes in Inequality during the Transition, Various Years ........9<br/>A2.1 Regression of Average Growth on Initial Conditions, 1990–99 .....20<br/>A2.2 Regression of Annual Output Growth on Policies and Initial Conditions Allowing<br/>for Differential Effects Early in Transition, 1990–99 .......20<br/>4.1 SMEs Have Higher Labor Productivity, 1998 ......42<br/>A4.1 Differences between New Enterprises and Small Enterprises, 1995 and 1998 ...49<br/>7.1 Methods of Privatization of Medium-Sized and Large Enterprises .....75<br/>8.1 Reform Options for Social Protection Programs.........83<br/>8.2 Student-Teacher Ratios in Basic Education, 1990 and 1997 ....85</p><p>外面的是林毅夫的书评，可作一家之言来看</p><p><br/>除转轨经济学有关人士读此书可以获得专业知识以外，</p><p>建议所有经济学专业学生阅读此书以学习经济学研究的方法：</p><p>观察、陈述现象；</p><p>提出理论解释；</p><p>进行或期待进一步的经验证明。</p><br/><br/><br/><br/><p>本书较贵，请慎重购买；</p><p>如果本帖成为精华帖，则降半价；</p><p>请勿谩骂</p><p>已经改为五折</p><p><br/></p><br/>

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