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Transition----The First Ten Years
Analysis and Lessons for Eastern Europe
and the Former Soviet Union
2002 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank
pdf 可复制 161页，676k
Foreword...............................ix
Acknowledgments........................xi
Overview .............................xiii
The Quest for Growth: Promoting Discipline and Encouragement ................ xv
The Flipside: Protection and Discouragement .................. xvii
Shading the Classification ............................. xvii
New Enterprises Spur Economic Growth...................... xviii
When Is Transition Over? ........................ xix
Do Central Europe and the Baltics Point the Way Forward? ............. xix
Can We Have It Both Ways: Encouragement without Discipline? ..............xx
Learning from China?....................... xxi
Institutions Are Important, but So Are Policies ...................xxi
The Political Economy of Discipline and Encouragement ............. xxii
Shifting Policy Priorities to Account for Experience and New Conditions .... xxiv
Conclusions .............xxviii
Annex 1. Discipline and Encouragement: The Reform Agenda ....... xxix
Part 1. The First Decade in Transition ................ 1
1. How Did Transition Economies Perform?...........3
Output Fell Sharply ..............................3
Industry Shrank—Services Grew..................5
Private Enterprises Overtook the State Sector ..............6
Exports Rose—Moving Toward Industrial Countries .........6
Poverty Increased Sharply ....................6
1
Contents
Contents
vi
2. Explaining Variation in Output Performance .......11
Did Initial Conditions Affect Performance? .........11
External Economic Shocks Delayed Recovery............13
Policies—Do They Matter? ..........................13
What Initial Conditions Matter and When Do They Matter? ......15
What If Policies Themselves Are Endogenous? .................16
Does the Speed of Reform Matter? ...........................16
Annex 2.1. Summary of Cross-Country Empirical Literature on Growth in
Transition Economies ...............................16
Annex 2.2. Additional Empirical Analysis ..............19
Part 2. Policy and Institutional Challenges Ahead ...........21
3. The Quest for Growth .............23
A Tale of Two Approaches ................26
The Associated Fiscal Adjustment… ........29
…And the Role of Labor Markets ..............30
4. Discipline and Encouragement ...........33
New Enterprises Drive the Transition ...............39
A Small Number of High-Productivity Small Enterprises Is Not Enough ......41
Can We Have It Both Ways, That Is, Protecting Old Inherited Enterprises and
Encouraging New Enterprises? .................45
Annex 4.1. Assumptions for Small and New Enterprises ...............48
Annex 4.2. Implications of the Higher Productivity of SMEs ............50
5. Imposing Discipline......................53
Soft Budget Constraints Can Create Macroeconomic Crises .............53
Nonpayments Weaken the Incentives for Efficiency and Restructuring .......54
Exit Mechanisms—Implement Now, Revise Later ...................56
Competition Is Linked to Innovation and Growth ..................56
6. Extending Encouragement .....................59
Corruption and Anticompetitive Practices Mar the Investment Climate ......59
Enterprises Lack Confidence in Legal and Judicial Institutions ............61
Financial Deepening Is Slow but Progressing ....................62
Privatization Attracts Foreign Direct Investment, and Positive Spillovers Follow ......67
Tax Reform: Broadening the Base and Lowering Rates............67
Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations Supporting Discipline and Encouragement ....68
7. Privatization: Lessons and Agenda for the Future ..............71
Traditional Privatization or Rapid Privatization?............73
Why Countries Did What They Did ......................73
Were Vouchers a Mistake and Other “What Ifs” ..............78
Summarizing Lessons .............................79
8. Supportive Social Policies ............81
Reforming Pension Systems ................81
Contents
vii
Social Assistance Should Protect Children and the Most Destitute, Adding More
as Budgets Allow ...............83
Severe Cuts Have Compromised the Quality of Education ...........84
Containing Costs Will Make Health Care Affordable for Those Who Need It Most ......86
Part 3. The Political Economy of Discipline and Encouragement.........89
9. The Winners and Losers from Discipline and Encouragement ........91
Who Wins and Who Loses? .............92
The Government Must Be Credible and Able to Constrain Oligarchs and Insiders .........94
10. Classifying Political Systems in Transition ............97
Competitive Democracies Have High Political Contestability… ..........99
…and High Government Turnover .........101
11. Political Systems Influence the Choice of Economic Reforms .......103
Political Systems Create Rent-Seeking Opportunities .............105
How Do Political Systems Affect Economic Reform? .............107
12. Confronting the Political Challenge ................111
For Concentrated Political Regimes, Mobilizing Potential Winners ........112
For War-Torn Political Systems, Restoring Stability and Reducing Uncertainty......114
For Noncompetitive Political Systems, Taking Advantage of State Capacity .......115
For Competitive Democracies, Using Momentum to Build Coalitions for Reform ........115
Conclusion...............116
Selected Bibliographic Guide to the Political Economy of Transition .........117
References......125
Boxes
1 Increased Inequality ....... xiv
1.1 Limits of GDP Statistics for Transition Economies ........8
2.1 The Regional Impact of the Global Financial Crisis and Recovery .....13
3.1 The Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey..........24
3.2 The Problem of nneling...............27
4.1 Can the CIS Learn from China’s Reform Experience? ........35
4.2 The German Experience ...........37
4.3Belarus.........46
5.1 External Debt and Fiscal Sustainability in the Low-Income CIS Countries ......55
6.1 Reducing the Cost of Entry and Doing Business in Armenia ............60
7.1 Historical Counterfactuals: Mass Privatization in Russia ........76
Figures
1 Winners and Losers from Reform ............. xxii
1.1 Changes in Real Output, 1990–2001.................4
1.2 Output Growth Rates, 1990-2001........4
2.1 Progress in Policy Reform, 1990s ......14
Contents
viii
3.1 Productivity Distribution of Old, Restructured, and New Enterprises ...........24
3.2 Performance of Old and New Enterprises, 1996–99......................26
4.1 Private Sector Share in GDP, 1999 ............40
4.2 Share of Employment in Small Enterprises, 1989–98 ...........41
4.3 Share of Value Added in Small Enterprises, 1989–98 ..........41
4.4 Value Added per Employee in Small Enterprises, 1998..........42
4.5 Index of GDP and Shares of Value Added and Employment Accounted for by
Small Enterprises, 1989–98 ..........43
4.6 Employment and GDP, 1990–98.......44
4.7 Soft Budget Constraints and Employment in Small Enterprises, 2000 ........48
A4.1 Factor Price Frontier: SMEs and the Rest of the Economy ..........50
A4.2 Efficiency Gain from 10 Percent Factor Reallocation to the SME Sector ........51
6.1 Insecurity of Property Rights in Transition Economies, 1999 .........61
6.2 Quality of Legal Drafting in Transition Economies, 1999 ...........62
6.3 Quality of Judiciary in Transition Economies ............63
6.4 Domestic Credit by Deposit Money Banks to the Private Sector, 1998 ......64
6.5 Stock Market Capitalization and Per Capita Income, 1998..........65
6.6 Operating Costs to Total Assets in the Banking Sector, 1997 ............65
6.7 Interest Rate Spreads,1998.......66
6.8 Cumulative Foreign Direct Investment Per Capita and Employment in Small
Enterprises, 1998 ..........68
8.1 Public Expenditures on Education in Transition Economies, 1998 ......85
8.2 Health Expenditures, 1998 ..............86
9.1 Winners and Losers from Reform..............93
10.1 Classifying Political Systems in Transition Economies, 1990–99 ....98
10.2 Veto Points Index, 1989–99..................100
10.3 Main Political Executive Turnovers, 1989–99 .......102
11.1 Political Systems and Economic Reform Outcomes, 2000 ....104
11.2 State Capture Index, 1999.....................................106
Tables
1.1 The Transition Recession...........5
1.2 Composition of Output, 1990–91 and 1997–98 ........6
1.3 Private Sector Growth,1990s..........6
1.4 Export Growth and Destination, 1990s ............7
1.5 Main Recipients of Foreign Direct Investment, 1992–99........7
1.6 Average Poverty Rates, 1990 and 1998 ...............8
1.7 Changes in Inequality during the Transition, Various Years ........9
A2.1 Regression of Average Growth on Initial Conditions, 1990–99 .....20
A2.2 Regression of Annual Output Growth on Policies and Initial Conditions Allowing
for Differential Effects Early in Transition, 1990–99 .......20
4.1 SMEs Have Higher Labor Productivity, 1998 ......42
A4.1 Differences between New Enterprises and Small Enterprises, 1995 and 1998 ...49
7.1 Methods of Privatization of Medium-Sized and Large Enterprises .....75
8.1 Reform Options for Social Protection Programs.........83
8.2 Student-Teacher Ratios in Basic Education, 1990 and 1997 ....85
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