中国宏观经济分析与预测报告（2013年中期），人大，P400



目录
主报告：中国宏观经济分析与预测（2013 年中期）
——扭曲加剧、复苏乏力与改革重启的中国宏观经济 ·························· 1
分报告一：经济波动的变异与中国宏观经济政策框架的重构 ····························· 70
分报告二：稳定不稳定的经济——企业微观波动及其对宏观经济政策的含义 · 103
分报告三：基于企业储蓄视角的高货币产出比现象研究——2003-2012··········· 120
分报告四：外部平衡的增长率：来自中国的经验数据的验证 ···························· 134
分报告五：人口老龄化对中国高储蓄的影响 ························································ 154
分报告六：实体经济滞后于金融调整背景下国际资本流动性的变化 ················ 191
分报告七：中国贸易超调：表现、成因与对策 ····················································215
分报告八：安倍经济新政及其对中国经济的溢出效应 ········································ 236
分报告九：企业进入、技术进步和中国产业结构转型 ········································ 255
分报告十：我国城镇化战略及其与工业化的关系研究 ········································ 285
分报告十一：中国的影子银行：定义、起因和经济后果 ···································· 307
分报告十二：财力缺口、偿付能力与地方债务规模 ············································ 324
分报告十三：艺术品市尝货币需求与贫富差距—兼论艺术品市场的意义 ····· 347
分报告十四：债券信用事件的触发因素及市场影响：案例分析 ························ 370
附录一：中国宏观经济分析与预测模型—CMAFM 模型 ···································· 390
附录二：中国宏观经济形势分析与预测（2013 年中期） ··································· 397