2013年中期主报告.pdf
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目 录
主报告:中国宏观经济分析与预测(2013 年中期)
——扭曲加剧、复苏乏力与改革重启的中国宏观经济 ·························· 1
分报告一:经济波动的变异与中国宏观经济政策框架的重构 ····························· 70
分报告二:稳定不稳定的经济——企业微观波动及其对宏观经济政策的含义 · 103
分报告三:基于企业储蓄视角的高货币产出比现象研究——2003-2012 ··········· 120
分报告四:外部平衡的增长率:来自中国的经验数据的验证 ···························· 134
分报告五:人口老龄化对中国高储蓄的影响 ························································ 154
分报告六:实体经济滞后于金融调整背景下国际资本流动性的变化 ················ 191
分报告七:中国贸易超调:表现、成因与对策 ···················································· 215
分报告八:安倍经济新政及其对中国经济的溢出效应 ········································ 236
分报告九:企业进入、技术进步和中国产业结构转型 ········································ 255
分报告十:我国城镇化战略及其与工业化的关系研究 ········································ 285
分报告十一:中国的影子银行:定义、起因和经济后果 ···································· 307
分报告十二:财力缺口、偿付能力与地方债务规模 ············································ 324
分报告十三:艺术品市场、货币需求与贫富差距—兼论艺术品市场的意义 ····· 347
分报告十四:债券信用事件的触发因素及市场影响:案例分析 ························ 370
附录一:中国宏观经济分析与预测模型—CMAFM 模型 ···································· 390
附录二:中国宏观经济形势分析与预测(2013 年中期) ··································· 397



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