研报：China Property - Reform of Land System and Next Round of Urbanization

公司：花旗 Citi

语言：英文

页数：44页

日期：2013年11月5日


目录：

Second Round of Urbanization: Likely One of Best New Growth Engines in 2013-23 3

Background on China’s Household Registration (Hukou) and Land Systems 4

Fast Economic Growth, Rapid Urbanization in 1997-2012 6

What Was China’s Secret? Development Model (Export + FAI) Was All About LAND 8

1. Land requisition = Compulsory requisition+ low compensation + transfer of land-use rights 11

2. Land-driven fiscal revenue 12

3. Land-driven financing 16

Problems in Rapid Urbanization of 1997-2012 19

Urban Areas 19

Rural Areas 19

Best Paths for Next-Round of Urbanization 23

Further urbanization likely to be one of the best new growth engines for China’s economy in 2013-2023 23

1. Proceeding from “quasi” to “real” urbanization (migrant worker population of 253m) 24

2. Metropolitan area-driven urbanization; Building-up of 8 to 10 metropolitan Areas 25

3. Further reform of land system; best preparation for China sustainable urbanization and domestic consumption 28

Possible Land Reform/ Urbanization Measures in 3rd Plenary Session of 18th CPC 30

Impact on Property Sector from Further Urbanization 32

1, “Dual-mode” property market – more market oriented 32

2. Divergent outlook: Bright for 8-10 metropolitan areas and negative for most Tier 3/4 cities 34

Strategy: Stocks to Focus on Ahead of Likely Rally 35

New policy mentality; new stock pick focus 35

Appendix A-1 40