发帖
雷达卡
公司：花旗 Citi
语言：英文
页数：44页
日期：2013年11月5日
目录：
Second Round of Urbanization: Likely One of Best New Growth Engines in 2013-23 3
Background on China’s Household Registration (Hukou) and Land Systems 4
Fast Economic Growth, Rapid Urbanization in 1997-2012 6
What Was China’s Secret? Development Model (Export + FAI) Was All About LAND 8
1. Land requisition = Compulsory requisition+ low compensation + transfer of land-use rights 11
2. Land-driven fiscal revenue 12
3. Land-driven financing 16
Problems in Rapid Urbanization of 1997-2012 19
Urban Areas 19
Rural Areas 19
Best Paths for Next-Round of Urbanization 23
Further urbanization likely to be one of the best new growth engines for China’s economy in 2013-2023 23
1. Proceeding from “quasi” to “real” urbanization (migrant worker population of 253m) 24
2. Metropolitan area-driven urbanization; Building-up of 8 to 10 metropolitan Areas 25
3. Further reform of land system; best preparation for China sustainable urbanization and domestic consumption 28
Possible Land Reform/ Urbanization Measures in 3rd Plenary Session of 18th CPC 30
Impact on Property Sector from Further Urbanization 32
1, “Dual-mode” property market – more market oriented 32
2. Divergent outlook: Bright for 8-10 metropolitan areas and negative for most Tier 3/4 cities 34
Strategy: Stocks to Focus on Ahead of Likely Rally 35
New policy mentality; new stock pick focus 35
Appendix A-1 40
2013.11.05 - China Property - Reform of Land System and Next Round of Urbanization.pdf
(2.76 MB)
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