<strong>The Trader's Guide to Economic Indicators</strong>
<p>Acknowledgments xiii<br/>Introduction 1<br/>The Business Cycle 3<br/>Indicators and the Markets 5<br/>How to Use This Book 6<br/>Who Can Benefit from This Book? 8<br/></p><p><strong>1 Gross Domestic Product 11</strong><br/>Evolution of an Indicator 13<br/>Digging for the Data 14<br/>Some Definitions 16<br/>GDP Versus GNP 17<br/>Calculating GDP: The Aggregate Expenditure Approach 18<br/>Nominal and Real Numbers 22<br/>Deflators 25<br/>National Income 26<br/>Employee Compensation 27<br/>Other Income Categories 28<br/>GNP, GDP, and National Income 30<br/>What Does It All Mean? 32<br/>GDP Growth 32<br/>Deflators 34<br/>Consumption Expenditures 35<br/>Investment Spending 36<br/>Government Spending 39<br/>Net Exports 40<br/>Final Sales 41<br/>Corporate Profits 43<br/>How to Use What You See 46<br/>Tricks From the Trenches 46<br/><br/><strong>2 Indices of Leading, Lagging, and Coincident Indicators 51</strong><br/>Evolution of an Indicator 53<br/>Digging for the Data 53<br/>Coincident Index 54<br/>Leading Economic Index 55<br/>Lagging Index 61<br/>What Does It All Mean? 64<br/>Coincident Index 64<br/>Leading Economic Index 65<br/>Lagging Index 66<br/>How to Use What You See 66<br/>Tricks From the Trenches 67<br/></p><p><strong>3 The Employment Situation 69</strong><br/>Evolution of an Indicator 71<br/>Digging for the Data 72<br/>Household Survey (A Tables) 73<br/>Establishment Survey (B Tables) 74<br/>What Does It All Mean? 77<br/>Employment, Unemployment, and the Business Cycle 78<br/>Inflation Indicators 80<br/>Sentiment and Unemployment 81<br/>Average Hours Worked and Temporary Workers 83<br/>How to Use What You See 85<br/>Tricks From the Trenches 86<br/></p><p><strong>4 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization 89<br/></strong>Evolution of an Indicator 90<br/>Digging for the Data 91<br/>Industrial Production 92<br/>Capacity Utilization 94<br/>What Does It All Mean? 95<br/>Industrial Production 95<br/>Capacity Utilization 100<br/>How to Use What You See 104<br/>Trick From the Trenches 104<br/></p><p><strong>5 Institute for Supply Management Indices 107<br/></strong>Evolution of an Indicator 108<br/>Digging for the Data 109<br/>What Does It All Mean? 113<br/>PMI 114<br/>ISM Employment Index 117<br/>ISM Price Index 119<br/>ISM Supplier Deliveries Index 121<br/>ISM Non-Manufacturing Indices 123<br/>How to Use What You See 125<br/>Tricks From the Trenches 126<br/></p><p><strong>6 Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 131</strong><br/>Evolution of an Indicator 132<br/>Digging for the Data 134<br/>Durable Goods Report 134<br/>Factory Orders Report 138<br/>What Does It All Mean? 139<br/>Durable Goods Report 139<br/>Factory Orders Report 142<br/>How to Use What You See 143<br/>Tricks From the Trenches 144<br/></p><p><strong>7 Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales 147<br/></strong>Evolution of an Indicator 149<br/>Digging for the Data 149<br/>What Does It All Mean? 151<br/>Inventories and the Business Cycle 153<br/>Inventories-to-Sales Ratios 154<br/>How to Use What You See 155<br/>Trick From the Trenches 156<br/>Source:<br/></p><p><strong>8 New Residential Construction 159</strong><br/>Evolution of an Indicator 160<br/>Digging for the Data 161<br/>What Does It All Mean? 163<br/>Influences on Residential Construction 164<br/>Regional Differences 166<br/>Housing and the Business Cycle 167<br/>Single-Family Housing Starts 169<br/>How to Use What You See 171<br/>Tricks From the Trenches 172<br/></p><p><strong>9 Conference Board Consumer Confidence and<br/>University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Indices 175<br/></strong>Evolution of an Indicator 177<br/>Digging for the Data 177<br/>What Does It All Mean? 179<br/>The Expectation Indices 182<br/>Confidence and Durables Spending 184<br/>How to Use What You See 185<br/>Employment and Sentiment 186<br/>Noneconomic Influences on Sentiment 186<br/>Tricks From the Trenches 189<br/></p><p><strong>10 Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and<br/>Food Services 193<br/></strong>Evolution of an Indicator 194<br/>Digging for the Data 195<br/>Surging Subcategories: Superstores and E-Commerce 198<br/>What Does It All Mean? 200<br/>Total Retail and Food Service Sales, Nominal and Real Figures 200<br/>Total Sales Excluding Motor Vehicles and Parts 201<br/>GAFO 202<br/>How to Use What You See 204<br/>Same-Store Sales 205<br/>Seasonality 206<br/>Tricks From the Trenches 207<br/><br/><strong>11 Personal Income and Outlays 209<br/></strong>Evolution of an Indicator 210<br/>Digging for the Data 211<br/>Personal Income 213<br/>Personal Consumption Expenditures 213<br/>Personal Savings 215<br/>What Does It All Mean? 215<br/>Personal Income 216<br/>Consumer Spending 219<br/>Personal Savings Rate 220<br/>How to Use What You See 222<br/>Tricks From the Trenches 223<br/></p><p>12 Consumer and Producer Price Indices 229<br/>Evolution of an Indicator 231<br/>Producer Price Index 231<br/>Consumer Price Index 232<br/>Digging for the Data 233<br/>Consumer Price Index Data Sources 233<br/>Producer Price Index Data Sources 235<br/>Calculating the Inflation Rate 237<br/>What Does It All Mean? 238<br/>Price Trends 238<br/>Price Indices and the Markets 240<br/>Price Indices and the Business Cycle 241<br/>How to Use What You See 242<br/>Tricks From the Trenches 243<br/></p><p>References 245<br/>Index 259</p><br/>

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