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Acknowledgments xiii
Introduction 1
The Business Cycle 3
Indicators and the Markets 5
How to Use This Book 6
Who Can Benefit from This Book? 8
1 Gross Domestic Product 11
Evolution of an Indicator 13
Digging for the Data 14
Some Definitions 16
GDP Versus GNP 17
Calculating GDP: The Aggregate Expenditure Approach 18
Nominal and Real Numbers 22
Deflators 25
National Income 26
Employee Compensation 27
Other Income Categories 28
GNP, GDP, and National Income 30
What Does It All Mean? 32
GDP Growth 32
Deflators 34
Consumption Expenditures 35
Investment Spending 36
Government Spending 39
Net Exports 40
Final Sales 41
Corporate Profits 43
How to Use What You See 46
Tricks From the Trenches 46
2 Indices of Leading, Lagging, and Coincident Indicators 51
Evolution of an Indicator 53
Digging for the Data 53
Coincident Index 54
Leading Economic Index 55
Lagging Index 61
What Does It All Mean? 64
Coincident Index 64
Leading Economic Index 65
Lagging Index 66
How to Use What You See 66
Tricks From the Trenches 67
3 The Employment Situation 69
Evolution of an Indicator 71
Digging for the Data 72
Household Survey (A Tables) 73
Establishment Survey (B Tables) 74
What Does It All Mean? 77
Employment, Unemployment, and the Business Cycle 78
Inflation Indicators 80
Sentiment and Unemployment 81
Average Hours Worked and Temporary Workers 83
How to Use What You See 85
Tricks From the Trenches 86
4 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization 89
Evolution of an Indicator 90
Digging for the Data 91
Industrial Production 92
Capacity Utilization 94
What Does It All Mean? 95
Industrial Production 95
Capacity Utilization 100
How to Use What You See 104
Trick From the Trenches 104
5 Institute for Supply Management Indices 107
Evolution of an Indicator 108
Digging for the Data 109
What Does It All Mean? 113
PMI 114
ISM Employment Index 117
ISM Price Index 119
ISM Supplier Deliveries Index 121
ISM Non-Manufacturing Indices 123
How to Use What You See 125
Tricks From the Trenches 126
6 Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders 131
Evolution of an Indicator 132
Digging for the Data 134
Durable Goods Report 134
Factory Orders Report 138
What Does It All Mean? 139
Durable Goods Report 139
Factory Orders Report 142
How to Use What You See 143
Tricks From the Trenches 144
7 Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales 147
Evolution of an Indicator 149
Digging for the Data 149
What Does It All Mean? 151
Inventories and the Business Cycle 153
Inventories-to-Sales Ratios 154
How to Use What You See 155
Trick From the Trenches 156
Source:
8 New Residential Construction 159
Evolution of an Indicator 160
Digging for the Data 161
What Does It All Mean? 163
Influences on Residential Construction 164
Regional Differences 166
Housing and the Business Cycle 167
Single-Family Housing Starts 169
How to Use What You See 171
Tricks From the Trenches 172
9 Conference Board Consumer Confidence and
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Indices 175
Evolution of an Indicator 177
Digging for the Data 177
What Does It All Mean? 179
The Expectation Indices 182
Confidence and Durables Spending 184
How to Use What You See 185
Employment and Sentiment 186
Noneconomic Influences on Sentiment 186
Tricks From the Trenches 189
10 Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and
Food Services 193
Evolution of an Indicator 194
Digging for the Data 195
Surging Subcategories: Superstores and E-Commerce 198
What Does It All Mean? 200
Total Retail and Food Service Sales, Nominal and Real Figures 200
Total Sales Excluding Motor Vehicles and Parts 201
GAFO 202
How to Use What You See 204
Same-Store Sales 205
Seasonality 206
Tricks From the Trenches 207
11 Personal Income and Outlays 209
Evolution of an Indicator 210
Digging for the Data 211
Personal Income 213
Personal Consumption Expenditures 213
Personal Savings 215
What Does It All Mean? 215
Personal Income 216
Consumer Spending 219
Personal Savings Rate 220
How to Use What You See 222
Tricks From the Trenches 223
12 Consumer and Producer Price Indices 229
Evolution of an Indicator 231
Producer Price Index 231
Consumer Price Index 232
Digging for the Data 233
Consumer Price Index Data Sources 233
Producer Price Index Data Sources 235
Calculating the Inflation Rate 237
What Does It All Mean? 238
Price Trends 238
Price Indices and the Markets 240
Price Indices and the Business Cycle 241
How to Use What You See 242
Tricks From the Trenches 243
References 245
Index 259
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