<p>&lt;申请加分&gt;</p><p>UBS research report - 16 Sept 2008, 100 pages:</p><p>Don't catch a falling knif</p><p>Tougher economic outlook <br/>The economic environment within which the China property sector operates has<br/>changed in 2008, for the worse. Softening investment and exports will likely be a<br/>drag on income and consumption growth, slowing any recovery in the currently<br/>consolidating property market.&nbsp;&nbsp; </p><p>More home price falls in September/October sales season <br/>Challenging affordability and weak sentiment, coupled with a flurry of project <br/>launches by cash-strapped developers in the September/October sales season, could<br/>result in further price declines. High-end housing may not be immune due to low<br/>rental yields and a stronger US dollar.&nbsp;&nbsp; </p><p>Sector still faces high 2009 earnings risk <br/>We estimate that for every 5% decline in price, developer NAVs and earnings<br/>would come down 6-7% and 6-17%, respectively. Given a likely further decline in<br/>selling prices, we think consensus 2009 earnings estimates could face further <br/>downgrades.&nbsp;&nbsp; Initiate coverage of CMP and Gemdale with Sell, and Poly with Neutral <br/></p><p></p><br/><br>squarekiss
&nbsp;金钱&nbsp;+30
&nbsp;好文章&nbsp;2008-9-17 15:54:02