[分享] UBS - China Property

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UBS research report - 16 Sept 2008, 100 pages:

Don't catch a falling knif

Tougher economic outlook
The economic environment within which the China property sector operates has
changed in 2008, for the worse. Softening investment and exports will likely be a
drag on income and consumption growth, slowing any recovery in the currently
consolidating property market.  

More home price falls in September/October sales season
Challenging affordability and weak sentiment, coupled with a flurry of project
launches by cash-strapped developers in the September/October sales season, could
result in further price declines. High-end housing may not be immune due to low
rental yields and a stronger US dollar.  

Sector still faces high 2009 earnings risk
We estimate that for every 5% decline in price, developer NAVs and earnings
would come down 6-7% and 6-17%, respectively. Given a likely further decline in
selling prices, we think consensus 2009 earnings estimates could face further
downgrades.   Initiate coverage of CMP and Gemdale with Sell, and Poly with Neutral

247623.pdf (1.21 MB)

2008-9-17 14:57:00 上传

[分享] UBS - China Property

squarekiss  金钱 +30  好文章 2008-9-17 15:54:02

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