<p></p><p>全文合计140页</p><p>(R)Views from the Bund!ˉ is a monthlpublication that gives clients a value-<br/>China <br/>added view on China macro, strategy and industry insights. <br/>Equities Research Team <br/>AC&nbsp; Key investment theme: All indications are that October economic activity <br/>Frank Gong<br/>data should be very weak as exporters were affected the most by the global <br/>(852) 2800 7006 <br/>credit freeze. Hence, the risk to 4Q08 GDP growth is on the downside, in <br/><a href="mailto:frank.fx.gong@jpmorgan.com">frank.fx.gong@jpmorgan.com</a><br/>&nbsp;&nbsp;<br/>our view. We still expect China to maintain above-8% GDP growth in 2009, <br/>J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited <br/>where increased government spending should contribute to around 3ppt of <br/>GDP growth. The reported fiscal steps that are expected to be taken so far <br/>&nbsp;<br/>Relative index performance <br/>are consistent with this view. We reiterate that such growth will not be <br/>enough to turn around the global commodities, metals, and oil markets, with <br/>SH Comp MSCI China H share<br/>600<br/>cement possibly the only exception. Discretionary consumer spending <br/>500<br/>400<br/>should continue to slow on weakening income growth and a negative wealth <br/>300<br/>effect. While growth risks remain on the downside and consensus profit <br/>200<br/>expectations may still need to be revised down, MSCI China is currently <br/>100<br/>trading at 8.3x trailing P/E, a level close to its 12-year trough valuation. <br/>0<br/>Nov-03Nov-04Nov-05Nov-06Nov-07Nov-08<br/>Assuming that MSCI China EPS declines 10% in 2009 (versus the consensus <br/>estimate of 12% growth), MSCI China today (valued at about 9.2x FY09E <br/>Source: Datastream. <br/>P/E) still looks cheap. The market has already discounted a lot of downside <br/>risks, in our view. Policy complacency, insufficient and less-timely policy <br/>responses to the unprecedented global financial crisis, and a broader and <br/>deeper global recession are key risks, in our view.&nbsp; </p>

[此贴子已经被作者于2009-1-4 8:54:30编辑过]