发帖
雷达卡
282757.pdf
(1.05 MB)
全文合计140页
(R)Views from the Bund!ˉ is a monthlpublication that gives clients a value-
China
added view on China macro, strategy and industry insights.
Equities Research Team
AC Key investment theme: All indications are that October economic activity
Frank Gong
data should be very weak as exporters were affected the most by the global
(852) 2800 7006
credit freeze. Hence, the risk to 4Q08 GDP growth is on the downside, in
frank.fx.gong@jpmorgan.com
our view. We still expect China to maintain above-8% GDP growth in 2009,
J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
where increased government spending should contribute to around 3ppt of
GDP growth. The reported fiscal steps that are expected to be taken so far
Relative index performance
are consistent with this view. We reiterate that such growth will not be
enough to turn around the global commodities, metals, and oil markets, with
SH Comp MSCI China H share
600
cement possibly the only exception. Discretionary consumer spending
500
400
should continue to slow on weakening income growth and a negative wealth
300
effect. While growth risks remain on the downside and consensus profit
200
expectations may still need to be revised down, MSCI China is currently
100
trading at 8.3x trailing P/E, a level close to its 12-year trough valuation.
0
Nov-03Nov-04Nov-05Nov-06Nov-07Nov-08
Assuming that MSCI China EPS declines 10% in 2009 (versus the consensus
estimate of 12% growth), MSCI China today (valued at about 9.2x FY09E
Source: Datastream.
P/E) still looks cheap. The market has already discounted a lot of downside
risks, in our view. Policy complacency, insufficient and less-timely policy
responses to the unprecedented global financial crisis, and a broader and
deeper global recession are key risks, in our view.
[此贴子已经被作者于2009-1-4 8:54:30编辑过]
京公网安备 11010802022788号
