<p>资源类别：报告</p><p>资源格式: PDF&nbsp;36 Pages 英 1.1M</p><p>作者：Morgan Stanley</p><p>Key Global Themes for 2009</p>1. Adjusting Strategies for New Policy to Find a Tactical Edge Caron 3 <p></p>What’s Different for 2009 3 <p></p>The Great Balancing Act of 2009 4 <p></p>2009 Outlook and Primary Metrics for a New Regime 4 <p></p>2. Duration: Global Policy to Collapse Rates Further, Stay Net Long 6 <p></p>US – Strong Policy Response Favors Being Long Duration Stipanov/Goncalves/Cashyn 6 <p></p>EUR and UK – Recovery Priced In Too Soon Roberts 6 <p></p>Japan – Demand to Overwhelm Supply Lim 7 <p></p>3. Curves: Evaluating New Drivers for the Curve in 2009 8 <p></p>A Potential Change in the Way the Curve Behaves Mutkin/Guzzo 8 <p></p>Evaluating Opportunities for Yield Curves Mutkin/Guzzo 8 <p></p>4. Spreads: Further Tightening for Liquid Rate Spread Products 11 <p></p>GSE Mortgages and Debt: Running with Policymakers Rao/Gordon 11 <p></p>Swap Spread Dislocations Have Increased Goncalves/Cashyn 12 <p></p>European Swap Spreads – Government Paper over Libor Bradley 13 <p></p>Munis Suffer the Same Fate as Other Spread Product Rordorf 14 <p></p>Global Inflation – BEI to Recover as Public Sector Re-Levers Goncalves/Roberts/Cashyn 15 <p></p>5. Vol: Dependent on Rate Level and Curve Shape in 2009 16 <p></p>Vol to Remain High in 2009 Stipanov/Gargh/McGraw 16 <p></p>US – Technicals Supportive for Now Stipanov/McGraw/Azarias 17 <p></p>EUR/UK – Macro Drivers Neutral; Technical Factors Bullish Gargh/Roberts 18 <p></p>6. Global Supply: Unprecedented Fiscal Stimulus = A Flood of Supply <p></p>UST Supply – Weighing on the Belly Goncalves/Cashyn 20 <p></p>EUR Supply – Larger Than Anticipated Guzzo 21 <p></p>UK Supply – A Four-Year Flood of Gilts Roberts 22 <p></p>Japan Supply – Expecting JPY10 Trillion Increase Lim/Ito 23 <p></p>7. AXJ Interest Rates: Reacting to Aggressive Policy Response Liu/Arora 24 <p></p>Appendix <p></p>1. US Government Actions 28 <p></p>2. European Government Actions 30 <p></p><p>3. Asian Government Actions 32</p><p>[UseMoney=10] <br/></p><p><br/></p>