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资源类别：报告
资源格式: PDF 36 Pages 英 1.1M
作者：Morgan Stanley
Key Global Themes for 2009
1. Adjusting Strategies for New Policy to Find a Tactical Edge Caron 3 What’s Different for 2009 3 The Great Balancing Act of 2009 4 2009 Outlook and Primary Metrics for a New Regime 4 2. Duration: Global Policy to Collapse Rates Further, Stay Net Long 6 US – Strong Policy Response Favors Being Long Duration Stipanov/Goncalves/Cashyn 6 EUR and UK – Recovery Priced In Too Soon Roberts 6 Japan – Demand to Overwhelm Supply Lim 7 3. Curves: Evaluating New Drivers for the Curve in 2009 8 A Potential Change in the Way the Curve Behaves Mutkin/Guzzo 8 Evaluating Opportunities for Yield Curves Mutkin/Guzzo 8 4. Spreads: Further Tightening for Liquid Rate Spread Products 11 GSE Mortgages and Debt: Running with Policymakers Rao/Gordon 11 Swap Spread Dislocations Have Increased Goncalves/Cashyn 12 European Swap Spreads – Government Paper over Libor Bradley 13 Munis Suffer the Same Fate as Other Spread Product Rordorf 14 Global Inflation – BEI to Recover as Public Sector Re-Levers Goncalves/Roberts/Cashyn 15 5. Vol: Dependent on Rate Level and Curve Shape in 2009 16 Vol to Remain High in 2009 Stipanov/Gargh/McGraw 16 US – Technicals Supportive for Now Stipanov/McGraw/Azarias 17 EUR/UK – Macro Drivers Neutral; Technical Factors Bullish Gargh/Roberts 18 6. Global Supply: Unprecedented Fiscal Stimulus = A Flood of Supply UST Supply – Weighing on the Belly Goncalves/Cashyn 20 EUR Supply – Larger Than Anticipated Guzzo 21 UK Supply – A Four-Year Flood of Gilts Roberts 22 Japan Supply – Expecting JPY10 Trillion Increase Lim/Ito 23 7. AXJ Interest Rates: Reacting to Aggressive Policy Response Liu/Arora 24 Appendix 1. US Government Actions 28 2. European Government Actions 303. Asian Government Actions 32
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