Key items this month<br/>• What is changing? We focus on the regional auto sales outlook for<br/>2009. We analyze 1) the timing and the drivers of the third auto boom in<br/>China, and the potential short-term revival of heavy truck demand in<br/>China, as we believe China’s industrial production growth will see a<br/>sharp rebound by 2Q09 due to aggressive monetary easing by the<br/>Chinese government in Sep-08; 2) Korean auto sales, which are likely to<br/>fall below 1 million units for the first time since the 1998 Asian<br/>Financial Crisis; 3) the potential growth drivers for the Indian auto<br/>market, on the back of which we expect a revival of sales growth<br/>momentum in 2H08; 4) the Taiwanese auto market looking for signs of a<br/>recovery; 5) the rapid deceleration of auto sales in Indonesia, which<br/>should continue well into 2009; and 6) the reasons for the negative<br/>outlook on the Malaysian auto sector, including lower GDP growth, a<br/>rising unemployment rate and weakening consumer confidence.<br/>• Information: We discuss 1) 2008’s vehicle sales in China and the<br/>Chinese government’s expected decision to expand consumer credit into<br/>the auto sector in order to boost car sales; 2) the light small vehicle<br/>segment gaining market share in Korea to about 37%; 3) the heating up<br/>of competition in the executive segment with Bajaj and Hero Honda<br/>rolling out 125-135cc bike models; 4) the impact of commodity tax cut<br/>on the auto sales in Taiwan; and 5) Daihatsu’s target to achieve 13%<br/>share in the Indonesian market in 2009.<br/>• Non-consensus calls: We initiated coverage on DongFeng Motor with<br/>an Overweight rating. DongFeng Motor is our top pick in the China auto<br/>sector; we believe the company is well-positioned to ride China’s third<br/>auto boom. We are Underweight on Astra International because we<br/>believe current consensus earnings estimates are too high. A right time<br/>to accumulate Astra would be when vehicle sales start to stabilize, rather<br/>than when interest rates start to decline, in our view.<br/>

[此贴子已经被作者于2009-1-31 14:48:57编辑过]