摘要翻译：
本文研究了当待遇为二元内生时，无条件政策效应的识别与估计。我们首先刻画了忽略内生性的无条件回归估计量的渐近偏差，并详细阐述了内生性导致无条件回归估计量不一致的途径。我们表明，即使治疗状态是外生的，当存在共同的协变量同时影响治疗状态和结果变量时，无条件回归估计量仍然可能不一致。基于政策目标的影响函数，我们引入了一类新的边际处理效应(MTE)。我们证明了无条件的策略效应可以表示为新定义的MTEs在无差异边际上的加权平均值。采用局部工具变量法进行点识别。此外，无条件政策效应还包括文献中作为特例的边际政策相关待遇效应。给出了无条件政策效应的估计和推断方法。在实证应用中，我们估计了由较高的学费补贴引起的高校招生状况的变化对工资分配分位数的影响。
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英文标题：
《Identification and Estimation of Unconditional Policy Effects of an
Endogenous Binary Treatment》
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作者：
Juli\\\'an Mart\\\'inez-Iriarte and Yixiao Sun
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最新提交年份：
2021
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分类信息：

一级分类：Economics 经济学
二级分类：Econometrics 计量经济学
分类描述：Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论，微观计量经济学，宏观计量经济学，通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容，统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
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英文摘要：
This paper studies the identification and estimation of unconditional policy effects when the treatment is binary and endogenous. We first characterize the asymptotic bias of the unconditional regression estimator that ignores the endogeneity and elaborate on the channels that the endogeneity can render the unconditional regressor estimator inconsistent. We show that even if the treatment status is exogenous, the unconditional regression estimator can still be inconsistent when there are common covariates affecting both the treatment status and the outcome variable. We introduce a new class of marginal treatment effects (MTE) based on the influence function of the functional underlying the policy target. We show that an unconditional policy effect can be represented as a weighted average of the newly defined MTEs over the individuals at the margin of indifference. Point identification is achieved using the local instrumental variable approach. Furthermore, the unconditional policy effects are shown to include the marginal policy-relevant treatment effect in the literature as a special case. Methods of estimation and inference for the unconditional policy effects are provided. In the empirical application, we estimate the effect of changing college enrollment status, induced by higher tuition subsidy, on the quantiles of the wage distribution.
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