摘要翻译：
本文导出了全球经济财富、生产率、通货膨胀、技术变革、创新和增长的预测表达式。方法是将文明视为一个开放的、非平衡态的热力学系统，它耗散能量并扩散物质，以维持现有的循环并促进其物质增长。根据先前的一个结果，在全球经济财富的普遍代表和全球一次能源消费率之间建立了固定的关系，经济数量的物理推导表达式随之而来。分析表明，财富可以用文明网络的长度、密度和能源资源的可用性来表示。能源储备的发现、人类和基础设施寿命的提高、更普遍的文化，或将原材料分散到文明体积中所需的能源数量的降低，都加快了财富的回报率。根据logistic方程，过去的增长减缓了回报率，如果回报率接近零，这种“减缓”就会使文明在外部强加的网络衰退方面变得脆弱。如果说过去的技术变化特别迅速，那么文明就特别容易受到新的不利条件的影响，这些条件可能迫使人类转向加速崩溃的模式。
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英文标题：
《Thermodynamics of long-run economic innovation and growth》
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作者：
Timothy J. Garrett
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最新提交年份：
2013
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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一级分类：Physics 物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society 物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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英文摘要：
This article derives prognostic expressions for the evolution of globally aggregated economic wealth, productivity, inflation, technological change, innovation and growth. The approach is to treat civilization as an open, non-equilibrium thermodynamic system that dissipates energy and diffuses matter in order to sustain existing circulations and to further its material growth. Appealing to a prior result that established a fixed relationship between a very general representation of global economic wealth and rates of global primary energy consumption, physically derived expressions for economic quantities follow. The analysis suggests that wealth can be expressed in terms of the length density of civilization\'s networks and the availability of energy resources. Rates of return on wealth are accelerated by energy reserve discovery, improvements to human and infrastructure longevity, and a more common culture, or a lowering of the amount of energy required to diffuse raw materials into civilization\'s bulk. According to a logistic equation, rates of return are slowed by past growth, and if rates of return approach zero, such \"slowing down\" makes civilization fragile with respect to externally imposed network decay. If past technological change has been especially rapid, then civilization is particularly vulnerable to newly unfavorable conditions that might force a switch into a mode of accelerating collapse.
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