英文标题：
《Who Should Get Vaccinated? Individualized Allocation of Vaccines Over
SIR Network》
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作者：
Toru Kitagawa, Guanyi Wang
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最新提交年份：
2021
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英文摘要：
How to allocate vaccines over heterogeneous individuals is one of the important policy decisions in pandemic times. This paper develops a procedure to estimate an individualized vaccine allocation policy under limited supply, exploiting social network data containing individual demographic characteristics and health status. We model spillover effects of the vaccines based on a Heterogeneous-Interacted-SIR network model and estimate an individualized vaccine allocation policy by maximizing an estimated social welfare (public health) criterion incorporating the spillovers. While this optimization problem is generally an NP-hard integer optimization problem, we show that the SIR structure leads to a submodular objective function, and provide a computationally attractive greedy algorithm for approximating a solution that has theoretical performance guarantee. Moreover, we characterise a finite sample welfare regret bound and examine how its uniform convergence rate depends on the complexity and riskiness of social network. In the simulation, we illustrate the importance of considering spillovers by comparing our method with targeting without network information.
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中文摘要：
如何将疫苗分配给异质个体是大流行时期的重要政策决策之一。本文利用包含个人人口特征和健康状况的社会网络数据，开发了一种在有限供应情况下估计个体化疫苗分配政策的程序。我们基于异质交互SIR网络模型对疫苗的溢出效应进行建模，并通过最大化包含溢出效应的估计社会福利（公共卫生）标准来估计个性化疫苗分配政策。虽然该优化问题通常是一个NP难的整数优化问题，但我们证明了SIR结构导致了一个子模目标函数，并提供了一个具有计算吸引力的贪婪算法来逼近具有理论性能保证的解。此外，我们描述了一个有限样本福利遗憾界，并检验了其一致收敛速度如何依赖于社会网络的复杂性和风险。在模拟中，我们通过比较我们的方法和无网络信息的目标，说明了考虑溢出的重要性。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Economics 经济学
二级分类：Econometrics 计量经济学
分类描述：Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论，微观计量经济学，宏观计量经济学，通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容，统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
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