英文标题：
《How many people are infected? A case study on SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in
Austria》
---
作者：
Gabriel Ziegler
---
最新提交年份：
2020
---
英文摘要：
Using recent data from voluntary mass testing, I provide credible bounds on prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 for Austrian counties in early December 2020. When estimating prevalence, a natural missing data problem arises: no test results are generated for non-tested people. In addition, tests are not perfectly predictive for the underlying infection. This is particularly relevant for mass SARS-CoV-2 testing as these are conducted with rapid Antigen tests, which are known to be somewhat imprecise. Using insights from the literature on partial identification, I propose a framework addressing both issues at once. I use the framework to study differing selection assumptions for the Austrian data. Whereas weak monotone selection assumptions provide limited identification power, reasonably stronger assumptions reduce the uncertainty on prevalence significantly.
---
中文摘要：
利用自愿大规模检测的最新数据，我提供了2020年12月初奥地利各县SARS-CoV-2流行的可信范围。在估计患病率时，自然会出现数据缺失问题：未经检测的人不会产生检测结果。此外，检测并不能完全预测潜在感染。这与大规模SARS-CoV-2检测尤其相关，因为这些检测是通过快速抗原检测进行的，已知这些检测有点不精确。利用有关部分识别的文献中的见解，我提出了一个同时解决这两个问题的框架。我使用这个框架来研究奥地利数据的不同选择假设。弱单调选择假设提供的识别能力有限，而合理的强假设则显著降低了患病率的不确定性。
---
分类信息：

一级分类：Economics 经济学
二级分类：General Economics 一般经济学
分类描述：General methodological, applied, and empirical contributions to economics.
对经济学的一般方法、应用和经验贡献。
--
一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Economics 经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
--

---
PDF下载：
-->