英文标题：
《The impact of Climate on Economic and Financial Cycles: A
Markov-switching Panel Approach》
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作者：
Monica Billio, Roberto Casarin, Enrica De Cian, Malcolm Mistry and
Anthony Osuntuyi
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最新提交年份：
2020
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英文摘要：
This paper examines the impact of climate shocks on 13 European economies analysing jointly business and financial cycles, in different phases and disentangling the effects for different sector channels. A Bayesian Panel Markov-switching framework is proposed to jointly estimate the impact of extreme weather events on the economies as well as the interaction between business and financial cycles. Results from the empirical analysis suggest that extreme weather events impact asymmetrically across the different phases of the economy and heterogeneously across the EU countries. Moreover, we highlight how the manufacturing output, a component of the industrial production index, constitutes the main channel through which climate shocks impact the EU economies.
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中文摘要：
本文考察了气候冲击对13个欧洲经济体的影响，对不同阶段的商业和金融周期进行了联合分析，并分析了不同部门渠道的影响。提出了一个贝叶斯面板马尔可夫转换框架，用于联合估计极端天气事件对经济的影响以及商业和金融周期之间的相互作用。实证分析的结果表明，极端天气事件对经济不同阶段的影响是不对称的，对欧盟国家的影响是不均匀的。此外，我们还强调了作为工业生产指数组成部分的制造业产出如何构成气候冲击影响欧盟经济的主要渠道。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Economics 经济学
二级分类：Econometrics 计量经济学
分类描述：Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论，微观计量经济学，宏观计量经济学，通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容，统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
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