英文标题：
《Optimistic versus Pessimistic--Optimal Judgemental Bias with Reference
Point》
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作者：
Si Chen
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最新提交年份：
2013
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英文摘要：
This paper develops a model of reference-dependent assessment of subjective beliefs in which loss-averse people optimally choose the expectation as the reference point to balance the current felicity from the optimistic anticipation and the future disappointment from the realisation. The choice of over-optimism or over-pessimism depends on the real chance of success and optimistic decision makers prefer receiving early information. In the portfolio choice problem, pessimistic investors tend to trade conservatively, however, they might trade aggressively if they are sophisticated enough to recognise the biases since low expectation can reduce their fear of loss.
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中文摘要：
本文建立了一个主观信念的参考依赖评估模型，在该模型中，厌恶损失的人最优地选择期望作为参考点，以平衡当前的幸福与乐观的预期，以及未来的失望与实现。选择过度乐观还是过度悲观取决于成功的真正机会，而乐观的决策者更喜欢提前获得信息。在投资组合选择问题中，悲观的投资者倾向于保守交易，然而，如果他们足够成熟，能够认识到偏差，他们可能会积极交易，因为低预期可以减少他们对损失的恐惧。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Portfolio Management 项目组合管理
分类描述：Security selection and optimization, capital allocation, investment strategies and performance measurement
证券选择与优化、资本配置、投资策略与绩效评价
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