英文标题：
《Forest Fire Model as a Supercritical Dynamic Model in Financial Systems》
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作者：
Deokjae Lee, Jae-Young Kim, Jeho Lee, B. Kahng
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最新提交年份：
2015
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英文摘要：
Recently, large-scale cascading failures in complex systems have garnered substantial attention. Such extreme events have been treated as an integral part of the self-organized criticality (SOC). Recent empirical work has suggested that some extreme events systematically deviate from the SOC paradigm, requiring a different theoretical framework. We shed additional theoretical light on this possibility by studying financial crisis. We build our model of financial crisis on the well-known forest fire model in scale-free networks. Our analysis shows a non-trivial scaling feature indicating supercritical behavior, which is independent of system size. Extreme events in the supercritical state result from bursting of a fat bubble, seeds of which are sown by a protracted period of a benign financial environment with few shocks. Our findings suggest that policymakers can control the magnitude of financial meltdowns by keeping the economy operating within reasonable duration of a benign environment.
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中文摘要：
近年来，复杂系统中的大规模级联故障引起了广泛关注。此类极端事件已被视为自组织临界（SOC）的一个组成部分。最近的实证研究表明，一些极端事件系统地偏离了SOC范式，需要不同的理论框架。我们通过研究金融危机，为这种可能性提供了更多的理论依据。我们在著名的无标度网络森林火灾模型的基础上建立了我们的金融危机模型。我们的分析显示了一个非平凡的标度特征，表明超临界行为，它与系统大小无关。超临界状态下的极端事件是脂肪泡沫破裂的结果，而脂肪泡沫的种子是在一个没有多少冲击的长期良性金融环境中播下的。我们的研究结果表明，政策制定者可以通过保持经济在良性环境的合理持续时间内运行来控制金融崩溃的规模。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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一级分类：Physics 物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society 物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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