英文标题：
《Violation of Invariance of Measurement for GDP Growth Rate and its
Consequences》
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作者：
Ali Hosseiny
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最新提交年份：
2016
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英文摘要：
The aim here is to address the origins of sustainability for the real growth rate in the United States. For over a century of observations on the real GDP per capita of the United States a sustainable two percent growth rate has been observed. To find an explanation for this observation I consider the impact of utility preferences and the effect of mobility of labor \\& capital on every provided measurement. Mobility of labor results in heterogenous rates of increase in prices which is called Baumol\'s cost disease phenomenon. Heterogeneous rates of inflation then make it impossible to define an invariant measure for the real growth rate. Paradoxical and ambiguous results already have been observed when different measurements provided by the World Bank have been compared with the ones from the systems of national accounts (SNA). Such ambiguity is currently being discussed in economy. I define a toy model for caring out measurements in order to state that this ambiguity can be very significant. I provide examples in which GDP expands 5 folds while measurements percept an expansion around 2 folds. Violation of invariance of the measurements leads to state that it is hard to compare the growth rate of GDP for a smooth growing country such as the U.S. with a fast growing country such as China. Besides, I state that to extrapolate the time that economy of China passes the economy of the US we need to consider local metric of the central banks of both countries. Finally I conclude that it is our method of measurements that leads us to percept the sustainable growth rate.
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中文摘要：
本文的目的是探讨美国实际增长率可持续性的起源。一个多世纪以来，人们一直在观察美国实际人均GDP的可持续增长率为2%。为了解释这一观察结果，我考虑了效用偏好的影响，以及劳动力和资本流动对每一个提供的测量结果的影响。劳动力的流动性导致价格的异质增长率，这被称为鲍莫尔成本病现象。因此，异质的通货膨胀率使得不可能为实际增长率定义一个不变的衡量标准。当世界银行提供的不同计量与国民账户体系（SNA）提供的计量进行比较时，已经观察到了矛盾和模糊的结果。这种模糊性目前正在《经济学》杂志上讨论。我定义了一个用于测量的玩具模型，以说明这种模糊性可能非常重要。我举了一些例子，GDP增长了5倍，而测量结果显示GDP增长了2倍左右。违反测量不变性会导致人们认为，很难将美国等平稳增长国家的GDP增长率与中国等快速增长国家的GDP增长率进行比较。此外，我声明，要推断中国经济超过美国经济的时间，我们需要考虑两国央行的本地指标。最后，我得出结论，是我们的测量方法导致我们感知可持续增长率。
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分类信息：

一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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一级分类：Physics 物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society 物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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